•At Next Month’s Presidential Elections
•City People Reveals The Odds Against Him
Over the next 2 months there is no sleep for the National Leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. He is not likely to sleep soundly at night. The reason is very obvious. From last week, when he was announced Chairman of the Buhari National Campaign Council he has been having sleepless nights meeting with various groups canvasing their support for Mr. President. Only last Friday, he took key Yoruba Obas to Aso Rock Villa to meet with Pres. Buhari, to get them to support Buhari’s 2nd term.
Asiwaju really doesn’t mind that assignment to deliver Buhari’s 2nd term. He is used to such tough assignments. That is the kind of challenge Asiwaju likes. That is the kind of task that keeps Jagaban Borgu going. He likes to achieve the impossible. He likes to take on an impossible role and then deliver.
But this battle is very, very important to him. He needs to deliver to be able to continue to be the political maestro that he has always been. He also needs to deliver to be able to prove to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar that he is no match. He and Atiku always compete with each other politically. He also needs to deliver to enable him beat his old time friend Otunba Gbenga Daniel OGD to his game. OGD is the one co-ordianting Atiku’s campaign in the South West. Asiwaju needs to show and prove that he remains the master of the game.
If he delivers on his assignment and gets Buhari back to office for a 2nd term, his own 2023 ambition is assured. There are strong indications that Tinubu wants to run in 2023. Asiwaju is so sure that Buhari will win 25% in at least 19 states of the federation.
Not only that. Asiwaju has been saddled with the responsibility of delivering the 6 South West states to Buhari and deliver he must, because the South-West is his base, that is his zone. To enable him to continue to enjoy the appelation of master strategist, he must deliver the South-West States of Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo. But can he deliver these states to Buhari? Asiwaju is so sure of that. He believes that with the political structure he has on ground it shouldn’t be difficult to achieve. His permutations are simple. Lagos is his base. He is sure of delivering Lagos, going by the recent political engineering he came up with which threw up Jide Sanwo-Olu over and above Gov. Ambode at the APC primaries. In Oyo State, he feels there is not much to lose sleep over, as the Governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi and his team will deliver. The same thing in Ekiti, where Gov. Kayode Fayemi is in charge. Ondo is also sure. So also Ogun and Osun.
But there are those who disagree with this analysis. They feel, though Buhari is likely to record resounding success in some South-West States, it might not be a smooth sail for him. This is because of the bickering occasioned by the nasty fallouts at the recent APC primaries. All over South West there are APC party chieftains who are still nursing their wounds and who are spoiling for a show down.
South West APC is troubled. They will confuse the voters. Amosun and Tinubu don’t agree, Akeredolu and Tinubu are not on the same page. There is acute poverty everywhere and people are highly disenchanted with the Buhari regime. Even in Imo, Okorocha is fighting. Going into an election with a divided house is already a threat to APC’s victory.
In the South-West, the roles of Tinubu and Daniel are key for both the APC and PDP. Both know each other so well. Tinubu’s campaign headquarters in 1999 was in OGD’s Kresta Laurel building at Maryland. Control of self, a determination and various interest groups were shared by both men. While Daniel has Afenifere support, Tinubu has Afenifere Renewal Group. Daniel resolved the rift in OPC between Faseun and Gani Adams faction, Tinubu has a lot of young guys he promoted into political prominence. OGD is in good books of the Obas and many of traditional institutions, Tinubu has a lot of money to throw around, and with Buhari’s support, now has security and state machinery to deploy.
Lagos votes is also controversial. If you take the Lagos State Presidential election result 2015
Lagos State has the highest number of registered voters; over 6 million. Even at the best of times, the APC was able to defeat the PDP with just 160,133 votes. This is because non-indigenes have over 2 million votes. So, even in Tinubu’s base of Lagos, PDP will spring a surprise, unlike in 2015 when votes were divided between Jonathan and Buhari (a Northerner), northerners votes are likely to be shared equally, but the odds are more likely in favour of Atiku because of the hardship people are going through, while over 80% of Easterners or South South and other ethnic minority people’s votes in Lagos will go for Atiku, the Yoruba votes will also be shared apiece, with odds also in favour of Atiku.
Another factor that has clearly changed the complexion of things in Lagos this time around is the Peter Obi factor. It is a known fact that Lagos State has the largest concentration of Igbos. They are in every nook and cranny of Lagos doing businesses and engaged in various white – collar jobs.
At the last general elections, a large chunk of Igbos resident in Lagos were largely uninterested in who became the Governor of the state. Many of them were only more interested in how to sustain their livelihood and flourish in their businesses. But there were also several thousands that voted. These were Igbos that felt insulted by Oba of Lagos’ remarks when he was alleged to have said that any Igbo person who voted against APC at the governorship elections will die.
And to express their displeasure, thousands of them voted against APC, which explains why incumbent Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode barely managed to win by a slim margin. But the circumstances will be different this year.
With Peter Obi in the scheme of things as Atiku’s running mate, the Igbos now have a significant representation, one who can speak to his Igbo brothers and sisters in Lagos and persuade them to line up behind PDP’s Jimi Agbaje and vote APC out of power.
They didn’t have such significant Igbo representation to address them at the last elections. Now, it should be expected that the aparthy expressed by some of the Igbos last time will no longer be there as they now have a stronger motivation to go out and vote for the candidate of their choice. And of course, you can be sure Peter Obi will also use the opportunity to canvas for votes for Atiku, reminding them that a vote for Atiku is a vote for him, Peter Obi, their brother and son of the soil.
The crisis in Ogun APC among Amosun, Tinubu, Osoba, Dapo Abiodun, etc and the balkanisation of the party into APC/APM would divide Buhari’s votes. Buhari’s votes will be shared between the two parties. There will be many void votes as most uneducated APM supporters would rather thumbprint APM even for presidential elections. Even before its crisis in 2015, with all state powers, and when Buhari was still seen as having some measure of “integrity” APC was just able to defeat PDP in Ogun with about 100,000 votes. Then, people had not tasted Buhari. Some of those who voted for him in 2015 would either not come out to vote or vote against him.
70% of the over 15 million newly registered voters did in protest against Buhari. It was a massive turnout in the span of 3 years and renewed consciousness in the power of their votes to change a non performing government, if most of these 15 million people are able to collect their PVCs and turn out to vote, may not necessarily be all out for Atiku, but definitely not for Buhari, the percentage odds of their choice will be in Atiku’s favour.
Last week, Senator Shehu Sani predicted that there is going to be a major upset in the coming February presidential election. He said this while speaking on Arise TV. His predictions based on geopolitical zone are as follows:
Northwest: Buhari will win the Northwest but I don’t think he will get the number of votes he got in 2015. A lot has happened in the Northwest like Zamfara, Sokoto & Kano State. It’ll affect his vote. APC 60% PDP 40%
Northeast: It won’t be easy for Buhari in the Northeast because one of their own is contesting. They have never had this opportunity since 1960. If you understand typical Nigerian politics you’ll know that Atiku may take the day. I’ll safely predict 50/50
Middle Belt: Hmm! Even before Election, Buhari has lost two states already, which is Kwara and Benue states. The crises in this zone will give Atiku an edge. I will predict APC 40% PDP 60%.
South West: The South West is a major headache for the the APC. I think the election in Ekiti and Osun states is giving APC sleepless night. The mood there is different to what used to be in 2015. I’ll predict APC 55% PDP 45%
South South: this area will be a walk over for the PDP. APC 20% PDP 80%
South East: This zone is always a No-go area for Buhari. I think the eastern people have issue with the the president as a person. The operation python dance in the east has further da the president reputation in the zone. The perceived marginalization of the southeasters under Buhari has also not help his cause. It’s gonna be a massive win for the PDP. APC 10% PDP 90%.
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