- What City People Has Found Out
As we move closer to the 2019 presidential elections, there are palpable fears that President Muhammadu Buhari may lose in some key states up North.
The North has 19 states, made up of Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Kano, Katsina, Plateau, Taraba, Niger, Adamawa, Kaduna, Sokoto, Gombe, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Nassarawa, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT. During the last 2015 elections, Buhari made a great showing across the Northern states, as he swept majority of the votes in many Northern States which got him the Presidency and enabled him defeat the incumbent President then, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.
But with the current political developments that feat might be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
The reason is simple. Many of the big players, who worked for him in all these states have defected and those who have not, are angry that they’ve been sidelined in the scheme of things.
Before 2015, there was this belief that Pres. Buhari had a huge Bloc Vote that could secure him victory up North. It was the famous 14million bloc votes that Buhari had garnered over the years, from contesting repeatedly at the previous elections. That was what Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and some other key players banked on, when the ACN went into a grand alliance with the CPC and other parties.
The thinking then was that if they (the ACN) could garner votes in the South West, South East and South South States they could add that to Buhari’s 14 million votes and defeat Jonathan. They were right in their calculation. It happened as they forecast.
But statistics have now shown that Buhari may find it difficult to win the key Northern States like Kano, Kaduna & Co. owing to various factors. One of it is that many of the political big wigs, who worked for his victory in 2015 are no longer supporting him. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku has left the APC for the PDP. Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, who delivered Kano to Buhari has left the APC. Kano former governor, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso, a chieftain of the APC, has said that he, as a candidate of the PDP can easily defeat Pres Buhari in 2019. The former governor said this while identifying the PDP as the most potent opposition platform capable of defeating Buhari at the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for February 2019. Kwankwaso in an interview with Ovation publisher, Dele Momodu said, I know that PDP is the biggest party and as long as they follow democratic principles, Buhari will easily be defeated. PDP needs someone from the 3K States: Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna to win the next election. That’s where the votes are. It would be difficult to win if they pick someone from any other zone.”
“I can guarantee them that I will beat Buhari if given the chance,” he added.
Also not working for Buhari are the following politicians: ex-governor of Kaduna, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, ex-Gov. of Jigawa, Sule Lamido, former Kano governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, House of Reps Speaker, Yakubu Dogara and Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki. Dr. Datti Ahmed, who is Buhari’s former aide, who contested under Buhari’s CPC is now contesting against him. he is a PDP presidential aspirant Senator Makarfi, is a 2-term Governor of Kaduna. He is now a PDP presidential asirant. In a recent intervew Makarfi says the PDP will take over Kaduna. He does not feel Gov. Nasir El-Rufai would pose any threat, pointing out that in the recent LG elections in Kaduna State, El-Rufai lost some areas to PDP.
Also in Kaduna, the 3 Senators are not on the same page with the Governor. They are PDP bound. In Benue, Samuel Ortom wants to leave the party because of the mindless killings and how Pres. Buhari has not done anything concrete. He also has a political disagreement with his acclaimed political godfather, Senator George Akume. Ortom recently dissolved his cabinet and this saw the removal of Akume’s loyalist.
In Kwara, all is not well for Buhari with Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki regaining his strength and energy. He is PDP bound.
Zamfara people are also not happy with the daily killings going on there. In the last 2 years over 3,000 people have been killed there.
More devastating for Buhari is his recent parting of ways with one of his kay men. Alhaji Buba Galadima, who has worked closely with Buhari for decades Galadima has also dumped Buhari.
Galadima, is now the leader of the Reformed All Progressives Congress (rAPC). Until he left the APC, Galadima was a member of the APC Board of Trustees.
At the news conference announcing their pull out of the APC to form rAPC in Abuja, Galadima recalled that in the build up to the 2015 general elections, some political parties and groups came together, and formed a brand new political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). This merger was based on the strong belief that Nigeria had come of age, but was severely underperforming and unable to meet its potential for good governance.
“The Nigerian people entrusted power to the APC based on its promises and potential. We are sad to report that after more than 3 years of governance, our hopes have been betrayed, our expectations completely dashed. The APC has run a rudderless, inept and incompetent government that has failed to deliver good governance to the Nigerian people.”
Accusing the leadership of APC of imposing dictatorship, impunity, abuse of power, complete abdication of constitutional and statutory responsibilities, infidelity to the rule of law and constitutionalism, the outspoken former National Secretary of the defunct CPC, said that the APC-led federal government had failed to ensure the security and welfare of the people and had elevated nepotism to unacceptable height.
He added that APC had failed to deliver on its key promises to the nation, saying that there is no evidence of any political will to reverse the decline of our party, while leaders who had created these circumstances continue to behave as if Nigerians owe the party votes as a matter of right.
Galadima explained further that the last straw that broke the back of the camel was the congresses and convention of the APC held recently, adding that the congresses were intensely disputed as they were conducted with impunity, total disregard for due process, disregard for the party constitution and naked display of power and practices that have no place in a party they all worked very hard to put in place.
Galadima said that even before the national convention that alienated millions of the party’s members, there had been widespread disenchantment with the manner the party had been run, and the conduct and performance of President Buhari-led government.
‘’The PDP, a group that has made a major contribution to the emergence of the APC administration, has made strenuous efforts to invite attention to inequities, injustice and poor management in our party without any success,” he further explained.
It is also instructive to note that the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, who delivered Kwara and parts of the North West, is no longer with Buhari. The list is long and endless. As it is, there is a big coalition up North to make sure Buhari is defeated at the coming elections.
There are also issues of Buhari’s abysmal performance, especially in his anti-corruption fight, economy insecurity and the mindless killings up North.
According to a recent research carried out by Unekwu-Ojo Joshua Ocheje, a concerned Nigerian, the following results came out clearly: 100% of those who voted against Buhari in 2015 would still vote against him in 2019. In the course of the research, it was found out that there was no one who voted against him in 2015 that have been convinced to vote him in 2019. One of the voters said he is worse than what I thought he was in 2015.
(b)60% of those who voted for him in 2015 would not vote him again in 2019. (c) although Buhari got his largest votes from the core North and the Middle Belt in 2015, same can’t happen now.
(d) 90% of the Middle Belt voters are angry against the President for the present insecurity across the region.
(e) Benue voters are angry and they are not likely to vote for Buhari with all the killings that had been perpetrated.
(f) The same thing with Plateau where many voters are also angry with Buhari for having allegedly taken sides.
(g) Kogi people are also angry with the President with the way the affairs of Kogi had been handled.
In the core north, the President has a lot of work to do. Atiku Abubakar and his supporters have deserted Buhari. Kano State is also unsure for Buhari. Kano State is where Buhari got the largest number of votes under Kwankwanso. But Kwakwanso is no longer with Buhari. In Kano, Buhari recorded 1.9 million votes.
Alhaji Sule Lamido and his supporters are also working against Buhari for the ordeal he was made to go through.
In Sokoto, Gov. Tambuwal is no longer with Buhari, some say he is only waiting to take a definitive decision.
In Kaduna State, the 3 serving Senators are at war with Gov. El Rufai and Pres. Buhari. The 3 Senators and their supporters are angry that Buhari has not stepped in to call El-Rufai to order. They feel that Buhari has allegedly hijacked the party structure.
It was also discovered that 90% of those who never voted before, up North have been encouraged in their various worship places not to vote for Buhari. Sheik Gumi has also advised his followers to vote against Buhari.
He also has the Shite Muslims to contend with. This set of Muslims has registered displeasure against the present government for the unlawful detention of their leader.
They have argued that since the Buhari government has refused to obey all the court orders, calling for the release of their leader they will not vote for Buhari.
Buba Galadima was appointed National Secretary of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) party, formed in the run-up to the 2011 national elections as a leading platform for the former military ruler General Muhammadu Buhari.
Buba Galadima is an engineer by training, a graduate of Ahmadu Bello University. and hails from Gashua, Yobe State. He participated in the 1994/5 Constitutional Conference. Galadima was Director General of the Nigeria Maritime Authority (NMA) from 1996 to 1998.
During the Nigerian 4th Republic, established in May 1999, Galadima became a chieftain of the leading opposition party, the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP). In June 2002, Galadima was interviewed on a proposal by President Olusegun Obasanjo to restructure local government in the country. He expressed his party’s opposition to the move. He said that Obasanjo, “the usurper president of this country”, was trying to sneak in the changes surreptitiously, giving state governors the right to appoint unelected officials to run the local governments, but also introducing Consultative Assemblies for regions and thus undermining the powers of the states.
Buba Galadima was also the National Campaign Secretary of The Buhari Organisation (TBO),
He is one of the 9 signatories that signed the merger agreement between the 3 political parties that came together, with a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to form the All Progressives Congress (APC).
No politician has ever suffered the kind of calamities Engr Buba Galadima went through in the country. He was arrested, detained and harassed for about 38 times. And he never changed, even under such pitiable conditions, He stood his ground as a patriotic, loyal and honest democrat.
Engineer Buba Galadima, voiced his concerns over attempts to scheme out northern Christians from holding one of the presiding positions of the National Assembly, namely Speaker of the House of the Representatives. Eventually, Members of the House of Representatives elected Hon. Yakubu Dogara, who represents Bogoro/Tafawa Balewa federal constituency in Bauchi State, as the Speaker of the 8th Assembly.
The Congress for Progressive Change rose from The Buhari Organization (TBO) formed in 2006 by General Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler of Nigeria, and his associates. After fallen out with the ANPP, Buhari decided that he needed a new platform to support his political ambition. The Congress for Progressive Change filed an application to register with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on 26 March 2009, and received official approval and registration on 28 December 2009. Galadima was appointed a member of the Board of Trustees of the CPC.
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