If there is one presidential aspirant right now that’s enjoying lots of social media endorsement, it is Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Ever since the former Anambra State Governor emerged the presidential flag bearer of the Labour Party, the attention and support he has been generating have been nothing short of a frenzy. The man has a massive online movement replete with a legion of Nigerian youths who call themselves the “OBI-dients’. They are forever online rooting for him and mobilizing for him. The support he has been enjoying has been unprecedented. Many didn’t see it coming. To the Igbo and his teeming ‘loyalists’, the presidency come 2023 is as good as won. As far as they are concerned, absolutely nothing can stop him from emerging as President of the federal republic of Nigeria next year. But, many political analysts have punctured their permutations. They insist that presidential elections are certainly not won on social media but on the political turf.
Peter Obi has proven that he is a brilliant man who understands what Nigeria’s problem is and believes he knows exactly what to do to fix it. His knowledge of the country’s many economic frailties and its possible solutions is uncommon. You have to give it to him. But political experts have warned that, beyond being brilliant and having sound knowledge of the country’s economy, there are some critical elements needed to prosecute a successful presidential campaign that Peter Obi lacks at the moment.
Number one is one of Peter Obi’s limitations that has been talked about over and over again. Peter Obi lacks electoral value. Yes, there is a lot of momentum going for him right now, but analysts have taken a critical look at his chances and the conclusion is that he cannot win more than three states from the east, give or take. And of course, all the three states, which include his state, Anambra, are not even exactly guaranteed that they are his for the picking. Even his Anambra State is politically divided. But even if he does win three states, how can that possibly translate to mean he could win the elections? Peter Obi’s popularity does not go beyond the eastern part of the country, that is his stronghold, but how well can he do beyond those shores?
One big talking point of the Peter Obi candidacy is his lack of political structure. Many political pundits have found it surprising to hear Peter Obi, a former elected governor of Anambra state, talk about winning the presidential elections without needing a political structure. It is preposterous. It is a joke to think you can successfully prosecute a presidential election without needing to have foot soldiers, political allies in different parts of the country, that you can rely on to help sell your aspirations to the people in their different domains and execute political strategies. These are political structures that have been painstakingly built over the years. Of all the major presidential aspirants vying for the office of the president, Peter Obi is the one with the weakest political structure. Of course, he and his followers disagree with this. They say what better structure could they possibly ask for other than the collective support of the ‘OBI-dient’ servants? Time will surely tell.
Whether Peter Obi admits it or not, many are saying he lacks the political experience to defeat veteran politicians like Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu both of whom he will be contesting against. Since 1993, Atiku has been in the political saddle, giving everything he’s got to become the president of the federal republic of Nigeria but hasn’t quite succeeded yet. He has contested five times to become President, he will definitely give this sixth attempt everything he’s got knowing this will probably be his last attempt as age is definitely no longer on his side. As for the presidential flag bearer of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, this is his first attempt, but he has massive experience as a politician. His political Empire comes second to none in the country and indeed the whole of Africa. Since he left office as governor of Lagos state in 2007, he has not only remained relevant but has grown to become the biggest political juggernaut of his generation. He is regarded as a Master Strategist when it comes to politics. Underrate him at your own peril. Ask those who should know and they will tell you that, against these two political gladiators, Peter Obi, even with his impressive online movement, stands not a single chance of becoming President!
This is the big one, and perhaps the one everyone is talking about – Peter Obi does not have the political war chest required to win a presidential election! Yes, he keeps telling anyone who cares to listen that this is so because he has not stolen any money, but the fact remains that, whether he stole money or not, he lacks the financial muscle to undertake a national presidential campaign and see it through to the very end. Indeed, some others have argued that Peter Obi is not exactly a poor man, he is said to be a shrewd and wealthy businessman with his hands in a handful of major business pies in the country, but the problem is that he is stingy! And that is a no-no in politics, especially for someone aspiring to occupy the office of the president of the country. Executing a presidential campaign is expensive anywhere in the world. It is no tea party. You must have a massive war chest ready for this otherwise, you could as well be living in a fool’s paradise.
It is also surprising to see that Peter Obi is also not actually enjoying the support of the generality of Igbo. Some, particularly the youths, are for him, while the elderly, the elites, core politicians from the east, are not throwing their weight behind him. A lot of them, most of whom are still embittered by what they described as his poor showing as governor of Anambra State, believe he lacks the competence and the capacity to rule a gargantuan entity like Nigeria. Many of them have insisted that he should come out and enumerate one by one his achievements while in office as governor of Anambra state. As far as they know, he does not have such a long list to show for his eight years. There are those who criticize for diverting state funds into his family business called NEXT. There are those who claim that he polarized the state and divided based on your faith as a Christian. They say it was under Peter Obi that it became important to know whether you were a Catholic, an Anglican, a Pentecostal, etc. It was also during his time as governor that assassinations and kidnapping reigned supreme in Anambra state. The fact that he does not have the backing of the high and mighty in Igbo land is one factor that will certainly work against him. No matter what he says now, the truth remains that he will need the elites to throw their weight behind him to show that he is not flying the Igbo presidency flag alone, he needs them to support him all the way and show that the Igbo are not a people divided against themselves, but one who has come to realize that if they indeed desire to rule this country as a people, then they must come together and speak with one united and indivisible voice!
–WALE LAWAL
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