Ahead Of 2027 Presidential Elections
The hottest news on the political landscape in the country right now is the coming together of four of some of the biggest political personalities in the land. It is the coalition of members of the PDP, the Labour Party and Apc, joining ranks with the ADC in a bid to form a powerful force that they hope will send the President, Bola Tinubu packing from Aso Rock in 2027. This coalition group is spear headfed by Atiku Abubakar from the PDP, Peter Obi from the Labour Party and Mallan Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi both from the APC.
In preparation for the 2027 general elections, opposition parties remain relentless in their quest to deny President Tinubu a second term. But a lot of neutrals have been very clear in their projection that, given the power of incumbency and the APC’s dominance, it is widely believed that defeating the ruling party will be an uphill task for any single or joint political party. The challenge is even more daunting considering that, while the APC continues to gain strength through defections from governors and federal lawmakers, other political parties remain mired in internal crises and a lack of clear direction.
From all indication, Atiku Abubakar is determined to make one final run for the presidency, knowing this may be his very last shot as he will be 80 years old by 2027. If he fails to emerge winner of the presidential election by 2027, he knows he will be struck out of the contest by 2031 on account of his age. Having made some costly political missteps in 2003 and 2023, Atiku is reportedly more strategic now and ready to go all out to win. The news is already everywhere that Atiku desperately wants to have Peter Obi as his running mate. The deal is for Atiku to do one term while Peter Obi takes over from him.
Without a doubt, Obi is the bride of the coalition. His massive followership of the youth demography makes him highly sought after by all the political groups. He has since announced his intention to be part of the coalitionb but many close political observers have expressed that Peter Obi may be in some really big dilemma but may be concealing this from the public. He has some really huge challenges he has to deal with in his quest for power come 2027. There are some tricky situations he must handle very carefully, decisions he needs to be sure about before taking the big plunge, otherwise, he could make some very costly mistakes that might deny him of the presidency he has repeatedly claimed he’s not desperate to get.
The first big challenge before Obi is the deal being dangled before him to to accept the position of running mate to Atiku. He has come out publicly to say he does not mind being running mate to Atiku, but his followers are divided over this decision, with some standing with him on the issue, while others disagree. Not only do they disagree, they are also threatening to withdraw their support from him should he agree to be Atiku or anyone’s running mate for that matter.
Already, some members of his support base known as the Obidients, have insisted he must accept nothing less than the presidential ticket from the ADC or any platform on which he decides to run. And in recent times, events have proven that Obi does pander to their whims and caprices. He shudders to do anything contrary to their wishes. This is one of the reasons why many , especially those who do not align with his aspirations criticise him for his inability to control the Obidients whenever they launch social media attacks on personalities they consider a rival or enemy of their beloved Peter Obi. Obi has made commendable progress in organising the Obidient Movement into a structured platform. He appointed Dr. Yunusa Tanko—a tested and capable politician—as national coordinator. Executives like Nana Kazaure and Morris Monye have also been mobilising new members ahead of 2027. But despite all of this, the big queastion remains, how will Obi pacify the Obidients? How will he make them understand that running with Atiku is the sensible thing to do at this time? The problem with this is that, if they are not convinced about his move, he may lose their support.
Apart from the fear of losing his support base if he decides to be Atiku’s running mate, another challenge before Obi is that becoming a running mate is a risky proposition. Yes, Atiku may appear sincere about doing one term and stepping down to allow Obi run the next term and possibly go on to do another 4 years, but we all know that politicians are not exactly the most trustworthy people. They often renege on promises made once they secure power. Even if Atiku means well, the sycophants around him will likely pressure him to seek a second term. Northerners naturally believe it is their birth right to rule Nigeria, a belief held very strongly by the Fulani’s especially. And Atiku is Fulani. More importantly, in Nigeria, vice presidents are often treated as ceremonial figures. So, the trust factor is always going to pop up. Can Obi trust Atiku well enough not to renege on his promise to step aside after one term? This is the one million dollar question no one can possibly answer – except Atiku.
There is nothing guaranteed in politics and even Peter Obi knows this. Leaving the Labour Party, the party on whose platform he achieved monumental political success and popularity during the last 2023 presidential election couldn’t be such an easy decision to make. And it remains to be seen if its not a decision that would come with very grave consequences. For starters, 2027 is still a fairly long time away. In politics, its too long a time for many things to happen. There could suddenly be alignments and realignments that could throw Obi out of the final set up in ADC. Where would that leave him? Going back to the Labour Party will be out of the question for him. He, in particular, has been blamed for being part of the reasons the Labour Party is embroiled in crisis. At this very minute, the Labour Party is divided into three factions. Julius Abure holds sway as leader of one faction, Nenadi Usman is laying claim to another while Apapa too insists he is in charge of Labour Party. If Peter Obi runs into problems with ADC, where would he run back to?
There is also the small but significant issue of Obi not enjoying enough support from all the other South East governors. The South East being Obi’s stronghold, this should worry him. The likes of Dave Umahi, Alex Otti of Abia State, the governor of Obi’s home state of Anambra, Charles Soludo, Ebonyi Governor, Francis Ugbonna Nwifuru, Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, have all distanced themselves from Peter Obi. He apprears to be standing alone, his brothers from the east are not standing with him. This situation, naturally, should worry him. The east is his stronghold and if the governors in charge of his strongholds are not with him, then there is still some fire on the mountain for Obi to quench before 2027 comes knocking. What this tecnically means is that Obi may not be able to amass the massive volume of rates he got during the 2023 presidential election because the votes would be significantly divided this time. And that will not be good for Peter Obi.
– WALE LAWAL (08037209290)
