Who Will Gov. DAPO ABIODUN Support?

• To Be The Next OGUN Governor

• As The Race Hots Up

There is one big question many people in Ogun State have been asking, over the last few years. It is:.who will Gov. Dapo Abiodun support for governorship come the 2027 governorship elections? Who will he support to succeed him as Governor?

As the race for the 2027 Ogun guber election hots up, many are wondering where the Governor’s loyalty lies? Does he have an aspirant in mind that he is secretly sponsoring? Is it possible for him not to support any aspirant? He is in the 3rd year of his 2nd term and many have been trying to read his mind.

What even makes the issue all the move important is the fact that time is running out and there is nothing in the governors body language that suggests what he is thinking.

He usually doesn’t talk about it in his speeches. And his loyalists will always tell you they don’t know. “No one knows who Oga is supporting,” said one his aides last week. “Oga has been keeping his cards close to his chest.”

Truly so. Since he came in for a 2nd term he has avoided talking about the issue of a successor. As the sitting governor of the state he is in charge of the party. And the current leadership of Ogun APC is loyal to him. The party elders also support him. So, some think he can easily throw up a candidate to run from within the party.

But insiders say , it might not be that easy. This is because going by the dynamics of politics in the state, it might not be easy for the governor to throw up a candidate and get him installed as successor, the way some governors have done in other states like Kogi, in the case of Alhaji Yaya Bello and Gov. Ododo.

Political analysts will readily tell you that it has been difficult for that to happen in Ogun State. Some of the previous governors tried it but it didn’t work out.

In the case of Gov. Dapo Abiodun many argue that he does not have a strong grassroot political structure that can help any candidate he supports to win in 2027.

What has also not helped him is the face-off he had with Pres. Bola Tinubu in the build up to the 2023 elections, when the Governor supported the then Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, who was also running for the presidency. At some point during the campaign, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu came to Abeokuta and called the Governor out, for not supporting his ambition to be the next President of Nigeria.

So, this time around, there are those who feel that the Govenror will have to tread softly to know where the President’s loyalty lies.

According to insiders, the governor has to be careful so as not to run counter to the President’s position on the matter. They feel he has to know the thinking of the President on the issue of Ogun governorship and who he is supporting.

What makes the issue all the more complex is that in 2027, the Governor will not only be battling to ensure victory for any candidate he supports, he will also be contesting for the Senate, unless he decides not to run. The popular believe is that the governor is eyeing a Senatorial seat in 2027. Opinion is divided on which particular senatorial seat he wants. Ordinarily, it would have been almost natural for him to for Ogun East senatorial district where he comes from and which is currently being occupied by Senator Gbenga Daniel, who will also be contesting for his 2nd term. The fact that OGD is not a push over as a politician and has done remarkably well in his current term, will most likely make it difficult for Gov. Dapo Abiodun to have an easy sail in Ogun East, more so both OGD & PDA are not on good terms.

That is why some are already suggesting that perhaps Gov. Abiodun will come out from Ogun Central where the current Senator is one of his loyalists. The analysis is that Gov. Dapo Abiodun has strong family links with Ogun Central Senatorial district from his maternal side. He may want to play up this, some people have suggested. Already some of his loyalists are talking about his links with Odeda area of the state.

So with the Gov. plotting how to win his own senatorial elections in 2027, he will have to work with a popular candidate in APC for governorship.

So, who will that candidate be? So far there are about 10 aspirants in APC whose names are being mentioned, almost on a daily basis. Senator Olamilekan Adeola (YAYI) is one of them. Infact, many political analysts will tell you that Yayi is the aspirant to beat right now because of how strong and visible he is on the ground. The fact that Yayi who is the Ogun West Senator has been in the race for the past 15 years. And he is a strong grassroot man.

There is also Ambassador Sarafa Tunji Isola, the immediate past High Commissioner to the UK. He is from Abeokuta (Ogun Central). There is also Senator Shuaibu Afolabi Salisu who is currently Ogun Central Senator.

Also in the race is Mr. Wale Edun, the Finance Minister and the co-ordinating Minister for the Economy. He is believed to be Pres. Tinubu’s favoured candidate. He is an Egba from Ogun Central. Although some say he has not made up his mind whether to run or not, we can authoritatively reveal that he has already put in place a political structure is currently headed by an influential Ogun female politician who was once No 3 in the state.

We hear the current Deputy Governor of Ogun State, Alhaja Noimot Salako-Oyedele is also in the race. She is from Aworiland, Ota in the Ado-Odo/Ota LG of Ogun State. She is quite influential politically and she has been very visible in the politics of the state over the last 6 years. She has enjoyed a good working relationship with Gov. Dapo Abiodun. She represents the interest of her people in the current administration. There is also Hon. Gboyega Nasir Isiaka who is a member of the House of Reps. He is from Yewa also and he is quite close to Gov. Dapo Abiodun. Recently, he was turbanned with a big Muslim title which might come in handy come 2027 when the Muslims will be rooting for a Muslim Governor, since the current governor is a Christian. He is a seasoned politician who has been around for years.

The governor has a few loyalists whose names have been mentioned like the current SSG, Mr. Tokunbo Talabi, his Commissioner for Finance Hon. Dayo Okubadejo who is from Ijebu-Ode and Ozogula who is Egba from Ogun Central. Hon. Jelili Kayode Amusan is also in the race. He is from Ogun Central. He was a one time member of the House of Reps. He is believed to be running for Ogun governorship. Already, he has erected billboards all over the state promoting the Asiwaju Support Group. The billboards have the photographs of Pres. Tinubu, Gov. Dapo Abiodun and himself on the Billboards. All the billboards come with a message: Ogun On My Mind, which suggests that he is interested on governorship.

Who will Gov. Dapo Abiodun then support? Will he support Senator Yayi who has been there for him over the last 6 years. Many believe he would most likely support Yayi going by the tremendous support he has received from the Yayi group. Yayi was there for him when he was contesting in his 1st term and he again supported him in 2023. There are those who believe that Gov. Dapo Abiodun’s victory at the polls the last time is traceable to the support and votes he got from Yayi at the last minute. So, the general view is that the Governor is most likely to support Yayi who has  helped him over the years by throwing his weight behind Dapo Abiodun when it maltered most. Many say Yayi is the one who made Dapo win in 2023. According to political analysts, it was Yayi’s votes from Ogun West that was the defining factor that helped the governor to narrowly beat Ladi Adebutu.

But there are those who feel that Gov. Dapo Abiodun might not support Yayi’s aspiration and that Yayi himself knows this. They cite several reasons. One is the fact that Yayi has a strong personality which might make it difficult for Dapo to control him. “Yes, they are close and they are friends, by the Gov. will prefer a successor he can control or have overbearing influence on,” explained a political analyst. He feels Yayi is too independent minded to be trusted. He is also uncomfortable with the fact that Yayi is too financially strong to be controlled by him. He also mindful of the fact that Yayi has an awesome political structure which is difficult to beat across Ogun State. The Governor feels  intimidating structure will make it difficult to ensure Yayi’s loyalty to him when he is out of power. Can the Gov. support others like his Deputy, Ozogula the SSG, his Finance Commissioner & Co.? The problem is that they don’t have a structure they can use. They will also need a lot of resources to pursue the campaign. If he picks anyone of them he would most likely be the one to fund their campaign.

Can he support Sarafa, GNI, Hon. Biodun Akinlade who is from Yewa South/Ipokia Federal Constituency? It is possible.

Will the Governor support Wale Edun who many believe Pres. Tinubu prefers for the job? These are all unending questions as the race hots up.

One thing is certainly clear. Where the President stands is important in all these permutations, because some of the aspirants are his “Boys”. Wale Edun, the Super Minister is one. Senator Yayi is another. Yayi is said to be very loyal to the President. He is young and vibrant. But there are strong indications that last minute, the President might ask him to step down and work for Edun. Will he agree?

Many also believe that Tinubu enjoys tremendous support in Ogun State where he has loyal associates like Senator Gbenga Daniel who has been ever supportive of the Presidents Reforms and activities. At his last Asiwaju Remo Christians Choir Festival 4.0 OGD still campaigned for Tinubu’s support.