- To Take Out President TINUBU IN 2027
There appears to be uneasy calm in the camp of the Opposition at this time. The ADC which sprung up a few months ago and was firing on all cylinders clearly, and strangely too, has run out of steam so soon. Before now, the front runners, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and El- Rufai, were making all the headlines, vowing to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu even if it was going to take their very last political breath.
But, just a couple of months down the line, all of the vows and promises seem to have vanished with the wind. Things have not gone the way the opposition expected. Indeed, many things that could go wrong have gone wrong for them. To say 2027 is looking bleak for the opposition would be putting it mildly. If truth be told, they do not look anything like a camp that stands the slightest chance of taking out President Tinubu come 2027, if anything, the President is the one that looks set to coast home to victory when the presidential election comes knocking.
The first sign that things were not going to go well came up when it was obvious there was going to be difficulty coming up with a consensus candidate among the three heavyweights jostling for the ticket. And the other contentious issue was, will Peter Obi agree to run as vice president should Atiku emerge as the standard bearer of the ADC coalition.
Atiku Abubakar who was the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP in 2023 and Rotimi Amaechi who also contested the All Progressive Congress APC presidential ticket against the incumbent President Bola Tinubu, had moved from their former parties to join the ADC as a coalition vehicle to pursue their ambitions in 2027. Peter Obi, former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, also declared his intention to join the coalition nd work with other opposition leaders to unseat President Tinubu in 2027.
Without a doubt, the party has been sharply divided over which region the presidential candidate should come from. This is perhaps the party’s biggest challenge, it is one delicate subject that no one in the party wants to openly talk about. But the question remains unanswered, where will the party’s presidential ticket go, the north or the south?
But ADC Spokesman, Bolaji Abdullahi responded by saying, ”When we get to that bridge, we will cross it, but for now, we are happy that the party’s activities have been strengthened by the decision of INEC to approve the party’s leadership led by David Mark as National Chairman.”
Clearly, this development has not changed anything. The situation within the party is still tense. El-Rufai has not been as visible as he was in the early days when they all first stormed the ADC to set up the coalition. A lot of the alignments that he hoped would happen have not taken place and they do not look like taking place anytime soon.
Peter Obi on the other hand has also kept a safe distance from the party, keeping one leg in the Labour Party and the other in the ADC. He is treading carefully, showing extreme caution not to throw all of his eggs into one basket so things don’t fall flat on his face. He is taking his time, waiting to see how the coalition would resolve the issue of where the party’s presidency would be zoned to before he decides where he stands. As it is right now, he talks very little about the ADC stalemate, preferring to sit back and let his support base, the Obidients, do the talking and perhaps handle possible negotiations on his behalf.
But while these issues are taking forever to be resolved at the ADC, the President and his ruling party have been moving at lightening speed, covering all regions of the country and triggering a gale of defections to the party that can only best be described as the APC Tsunami. As of this moment, every single south east governor has either defected to the APC or declared support for President Tinubu’s second term bid. The most recent to announce their defections from the PDP to the APC are the Enugu state governor, Peter Mbah and Bayelsa governor, Duoye Diri. These two major defections particularly rocked the PDP because they did all they could to stop the defections from happening. From Abia state to Anambra, Imo, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, all the respective governors are solidly behind President Tinubu’s re-election. Not only governors have defected, Senators and House of Reps members are also defecting to the APC in droves. And these defections didn’t happen by chance, they were the direct result of the master stroke from the Master Strategist himself, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Many political analysts believe President Tinubu already has a very firm grip of the nation’s political system. He has already made massive incursions into the east where he recorded his lowest performances during the last election by taking deliberate steps to appease the Igbos who clearly did not vote for him 2023. His appointment of Bianca Ojukwu as Minister of state for Foreign Affairs has been seen as a great political move by many. There’s no gainsaying many Igbos are extremely pleased with the appointment.
The appointment of Dave Umahi as Minister of Works, one of the biggest ministeries in the land, also impressed many Igbos. Same goes for the South-East Development Commission, set up to help the south east develop many of its regions devastated during the civil war, has brought joy to many Igbo elites. This is something no government granted them until President Tinubu came.
The present administration has spent a little over two years in office. It has been nothing less than a tumultous 29 months in power for the man who cared to tell anyone that listened at the time that, ‘Emilokan.’ His score card so far, has often been a subject of debate owing to some of his reforms and their seemingly harsh effect. While some think the President has done poorly, other Nigerians also insist that the President’s reforms, though strangulating, are starting to yield dividends and discerning Nigerians are starting to see where the President is headed with his reforms.
And indeed, the reforms are starting to yield dividends. Prices of food items such rice, Garri, beans, etc, have all come crashing down. A bag of rice that was sold for as much as 90k up until early part of this year now sells for about 55k, almost fifty percent reduction.. Same with the prices of other staple foods, The naira is slowly and steadily getting stronger against the dollar while the stability in the economy has restored investors confidence. Nigeria’s debt has been significantly reduced while all other indices are showing clearly that we may just have turned the corner. And with the gale of defections sweeping across the country with almost all of the state governors telling anyone who cares to listen that thy may not have been able to do half of what they’d achieved in their states if it wasn’t for the money saved from fuel subsidy and spent judiciously by the President. As it is now, those who should know say it will take more than a miracle for either Atiku, Obi or any other person for that matter, to defeat Tinubu come 2027.
For the supporters of Peter Obi and Atiku, the above analysis does not hold water. They insist that Nigerians want a new president and it has to be either Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar. But still, many Nigerians are convinced beyond doubts that it will be almost impossible for any of these two politicians to dislodge Tinubu from the seat of power. Apart from the fact that things are beginning to fall into place for the President Bola Tinubu led administration, there is nothing coming from the opposition camps that suggests that they are ready for the 2027 presidential elections. To begin with, both opposition parties, the PDP and Labour Party, are in disarray at the moment. The Labour party is embroiled in leadership crisis that appears to be deepening with each passing day, while the PDP is yet to get itself out of the mess bequeathed to it by the Nyesom Wike led G-5 which helped Tinubu secure millions of votes in some key states, including winning in Rivers during the last presidential elections.
In fact, as it is, Peter Obi does not even know yet on which platform he intends to run come 2027 because it is highly unlikely that he won’t leave the Labour Party as a result of the myriads of crises plaguing the party. And in the event that he chooses to stay with the party and contest the 2027 presidential election on the party’s platform, a party that lacks a national structure strong enough to help him win, what miracle is he then hoping for? It was this same lack of party structure that worked against him the last time. The Labour Party didn’t have agents spread across all the polling booths where elections were held in all the 774 local governments in the country. This was a major problem for Peter Obi at the last elections and it will still be a big problem because nothing has changed yet. It takes massive funding for a party to have agents represent it across the nation and the issue of funding is still a major issue bedevelling the Labour Party till this very moment and Peter Obi, lacks the financial will to fund the party nationally.
The fact that Atiku Abubakar is a Northerner is also a factor that will work against him because of the geopolitics the country gives significant consideration when it comes to who becomes the President. There is an unwritten agreement that allows the rotation of power amongst the major geographical regions. This was what worked largely against Atiku the last time. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, had just finished eight years in power, and Atiku, another northern Muslim, wanted to take over power from him. This was the grouse the G-5 led by Nyesom Wike had against him. It didn’t work for him in 2023, it still cannot work for him in 2027. The understanding is that whichever region is in power would be allowed to do its full term of eight years. Tinubu, a southerner, has to be allowed to finish his eight years which will take him to 2031.
Late Dr. Doyin Okupe, former Director-General of Peter Obi Presidential Campaign also 4expressed his sentiments before he passed on: “Atiku failed in 2023, not because he was not a good person but because people felt that a northern Muslim cannot succeed another northern Muslim after 8 years. “If Atiku still contests in 2027, he has a right. He is eminently qualified, and one of the best we have. But geopolitics is an issue. “The conditionality still persists. A Southerner would have just completed four years and needs another four-year term. “It’s not in the constitution, but we agree that when a northerner does his 8 years, a southerner will also do the same.
“So, the North cannot now terminate the tenure of the South in 2027. It is not going to work,” Okupe said.
There is also the talk of a possible merger between Atiku and Obi. Many believe that, unlike in 2023 when Atiku and Peter Obi pursued their individual aspirations and ultimately worked at cross purposes, allowing the Tinubu emerge President, if the two come together in 2027, the results might be different. They will dislodge President Tinubu, they say. The idea looks good on paper. The two of them will actually make a formidable pair. But the question is, who steps down for whom to allow the other become the presidential candidate?
When asked what he thinks about the possibility of an Atiku/Obi merger defeating President Tinubu come 2027, Doyin Okupe had this to say:
“I have been in this game for 40 years and above. I came into politics in 1978. I have been in several talks and discussions. I have represented my party and my movement in several alliances.
“We have not attained that maturity to get to the level of being rational and reasonable and ready to give the necessary concession for a group interest. We are not there yet.
“Even if you look at our private businesses; go and check, 90 per cent of business partnership will crumble within the first three years.
“I wish those who are trying alliances luck, but it is going to end up the same way it has always ended up. All the alliances will end up in futility,” Okupe said.
Assessing the alliance that brought ex-President Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015, the former presidential spokesman noted that though he criticised the alliance, the leader of the alliance, Tinubu, conceded everything to make it work.
“The man who spearheaded that alliance has grown beyond this constitution of naivety and selfishness.
“You put up an alliance, you set up a dining table, you cook food, and say other people should go and eat it. It is not done anywhere.
“He conceded everything so that the thing could work,” Okupe said.
He expressed doubt in the readiness and willingness of opposition leaders, like Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (LP), and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) mulling alliance against President Tinubu in 2027 to concede for one another. “If you look at it very well, that kind of maturity does not exist,” he insisted.
– WALE LAWAL
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