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Over Their Next Political Move
The way in which former presidential candidates Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are preparing for the 2027 presidential election has been described by many as alarming. It is troubling that these two prominent figures have yet to finalize the platforms from which they will run. They seem to be caught in limbo, lacking a clear direction. Meanwhile, the incumbent candidate has solidified their plans, while Atiku and Obi continue to struggle to establish their platforms
Members and followers of two major political parties are expressing concerns over what they perceive as poor preparedness. Some view this situation as political suicide for Atiku Abubakar, especially after he switched from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Action Democratic Party (ADC) with several prominent politicians just a few months ago.
While that issue seemed to be settled, the former Vice President is now facing a much larger battle within the ADC. When he first joined the ADC, it was rumored that the party belonged to him, but it turned out that he actually purchased the party from someone else. Now, a group within the ADC is claiming ownership of the party after Abubakar reached an agreement with the original owner.
Currently, there are two factions within the ADC claiming ownership, and the matter is still pending in court, with no resolution yet. As it stands, Alhaji Abubakar is uncertain about contesting under this party unless he can reach an agreement with the second faction. If they reject his offer, he may have to consider other options to pursue his ambitions.
Another issue is that many of the former Vice President’s key allies have opted not to join him in the ADC, while others are hesitant about him running for office again. It has been reported that many of the original promoters of the party are having second thoughts. Even among Abubakar’s traditional base in Adamawa State, reactions have been lukewarm. Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has distanced himself from the ADC, and the Adamawa PDP leadership has firmly rejected any alliance. “We are not joining him in the ADC,” stated Ibrahim Tahir, the Adamawa PDP Chairman. “Quote me, he will not make any impact in 2027 if he continues down this path with the ADC.”
This is not a promising situation for the former Vice President, who is determined to test his popularity once more. Tahir also urged Abubakar to step back from frontline politics, suggesting that he would be more respected if he chose to assume the role of an elder statesman instead of seeking the presidency again. “By 2027, age will not be on his side, and he may not be strong enough to endure the demands of the presidency,” he added.
Recent reports have linked several individuals with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but all of them have denied any alliance. Former Lagos State Governor Akinwunmi Ambode quickly refuted claims of his involvement, expressing his support for the current government instead. Boss Mustapha, a longtime ally and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, has also dismissed rumors of his intention to join the ADC. Similarly, former Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi has denied any such association.
Among ADC party members who formed the coalition, some are uncomfortable with Atiku Abubakar as the candidate. For instance, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has repeatedly stated his support for a southern candidate in the 2027 election.
Nasir El-Rufai has been quite silent in recent weeks, and there are indications that things are not going well for him. It’s important to note that he was one of the first politicians to leave his party and join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) a few months ago.
His plan was to quickly establish himself within the new party and to lobby for other disgruntled politicians to join him. However, his first disappointment came when the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), led by the late Mammodu Buhari, rejected his proposal for an alliance. Before Buhari’s passing, he had distanced himself from the SDP.
Currently, there are concerns that the SDP is preparing to push him out. He has reportedly been told that he is not welcome in the party and that he cannot be trusted. Additionally, the coalition to which he belongs does not favor him. He has repeatedly stated that the presidency should remain in the South for another term, a position that does not align with Atiku Abubakar, the leader of the coalition.
It is also believed that part of the reason he left the All Progressives Congress (APC) to join the SDP was his ambition to run as Vice President under a southern candidate. If Atiku ultimately becomes the coalition’s candidate, it would mean that El-Rufai would stand to lose entirely.
An insider revealed that some key allies are currently pleading with Atiku to step aside for Peter Obi to receive the party ticket, but there has been no concrete response from Atiku as of yet. Key members of the Labour Party are expressing frustration and anger over Peter Obi’s assertion that he remains a member of the Labour Party, despite being an active participant in the ADC opposition coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
In a recent interview, he stated, “The coalition just adopted a party for 2027. We are working together for the sake of Nigeria. Today, I am a member of the Labour Party. I remain in the Labour Party. However, we have all agreed to collaborate as a coalition for the 2027 election, using the ADC as our platform. In the future, more parties and individuals may join us.
“We seek better governance for this country. We want a more competent government with capacity and character. This coalition may include other parties, similar to past experiences, and we might even change the name of the party.
“I am a member of the Labour Party and will work with this group. No, there is no anti-party activity here. Remember, we are preparing for 2027; we are not there yet—we are in 2025. It’s clear that we have adopted this coalition for 2027. If I say I will attend your dinner this evening, it doesn’t mean I will abandon my breakfast and lunch.”
The pressing question for many Nigerians is whether Peter Obi will secure the ADC ticket ahead of Atiku Abubakar, who is perceived to be the owner of both the ADC and The Coalition. An insider also mentioned that Peter Obi is aware he might ultimately run under the Labour Party if ADC members cannot persuade Atiku to step down for him. He is “banking on them” to facilitate this outcome while maintaining his membership in the Labour Party, which is currently experiencing internal divisions.
One challenge Peter Obi faces is his poor relationship with his base in Anambra. The state governor, Prof. Charles Soludo, is determined to oppose him in the upcoming election, in contrast to the 2023 election where Obi won the state by a significant margin.
Additionally, Obi will struggle across the southeastern states, as the current administration has gained the loyalty of about four states that have pledged their support and votes for the forthcoming election. This level of support was not present during the 2023 general elections, and the incumbent now has advantages that Obi did not.
Recently, the newly formed apex Igbo socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, declared its support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027, citing his administration’s unprecedented commitment to the South-East since the end of the Nigeria–Biafra war 55 years ago. Mr. Azuta-Mbata is a major supporter of the Tinubu government.
Another point to consider is that Peter Obi is not entirely certain he will be allowed to run with the Labour Party, as the Julius Abure faction might nominate another candidate for the party’s platform. The situation could become contentious if taken to court.
All of Peter Obi’s calculations and strategies may not come to fruition if he does not act swiftly, especially given that the former Vice President is determined to run again, fully aware that this may be his last opportunity.
–Isaac Abimbade
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