The political landscape in Osun state has been at the centre of attention for over a year now. The tension among players, stakeholders, and political actors has been very intense, with alignments and realignments occurring unexpectedly from one point to another. Currently, all focus is on Osun as the state prepares for its 2026 gubernatorial election, which is unlike any other due to the many dramas across all primary camps.
APC in Osun faces persistent internal rivalries and leadership disputes, making it difficult for the party to present a united front ahead of the election. Factions loyal to different leaders are vying for dominance, diminishing APC’s effectiveness as a challenger to the incumbent governor.
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the party lost to the current governor mainly because of internal crises within APC, which worked heavily in favour of Governor Ademola Adeleke. In fact, he forged a strong alliance with a prominent former party figure, now in ADC, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, enabling him to defeat APC in the state.
Many political analysts have said that when the opposition appears divided or chaotic, voters often hesitate to transfer their trust and votes to it, benefitting the incumbent. A fragmented and weak APC thus reduces the electoral pressure on Adeleke. If that lesson wasn’t enough, the current APC in Osun is more polarised than ever.
One of the big factors that may work against APC in Osun in the forthcoming gubernatorial election is Iyiola Omisore factor. Some one who commands a significant number of votes, is likely to fully support the party, if he is eventually disqualified from the ballot. The former Deputy Governor Iyiola Omisore, widely supported in his local area and beyond, will be dissappointed if he does not receive the party ticket for the 2026 gubernatorial election.
It is worth noting that he previously worked to help the party win the 2018 gubernatorial election that brought former governor Oyetola into power.
Also, it has been said that many of those aspirants who were asked to step down may not work for the APC consensus candidate, Bola Oyebamiji. They are likely to work for the opposition parties. Some of them are already disgruntled and are desperate to form alliances with the candidate or party that offers them more. Just like many Osun voters who are watching how a candidate is being imposed, rather than putting the round peg inside the round hole. An average Osun indigene feels Iyiola Omisore was cheated, and this will make most people withdraw their support for the candidate of the All Progressive Congress. According to a group, Southern Movement, a few weeks ago, they told all Osun voters, especially in the Origbo areas of the state and other environs, to rally around Iyiola Omisore. There are several groups that have stood behind Omisore in the last few months, and they are very loyal to him. It has also been said that he could be forced to form more alliances with another party to win Osun again, and it may be with the incumbent Governor Adeleke.
The APC disqualified Sen. Iyiola Omisore, Babatunde Haketer Oralusi, Oyedotun Babayemi, Akin Ogunbiyi, former Deputy Governor Benedict Alabi, Adegoke Rasheed Okiki, and Babajide Omoworare. They approved only two aspirants, Mulikat Abiola Jimoh and Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, to contest the primary. There were loud rumors that those who were disqualified might withdraw their genuine support for the party, and many of them may form alliances with the opposition. Other underlying factors have been said to undermine the chances of the APC in Osun and also work in favor of the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, in the 2026 election. Just like Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, who was a member of Omoluabi Progressive and later moved to the ADC but has now left there. He too is another factor that can work for Governor Adeleke’s second term. He has a lot of teeming followers from the ADC, and he is ready to align with whoever offers him more. In the last few days, a strong source said there have been several meetings and discussions between the Governor and Alhaji Adeoti.
And Alhaji Moshood Adeoti’s departure from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is seen by political analysts as a development that could benefit Governor Ademola Adeleke by reducing opposition fragmentation and possibly garnering support from a former rival camp.
Adeoti’s exit, driven by internal party conflicts over the governorship ticket, has allowed his supporters to consider aligning with other parties or candidates. Speculation suggests Adeoti might eventually join the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or form a strategic alliance with Governor Adeleke. Such moves could net Adeleke a crucial bloc of votes, especially from the Iwo area in Osun West where Adeoti commands significant grassroots support, potentially critical for his re-election bid in 2026.
Another factor that may favour Governor Ademola Adeleke in the forthcoming election is that the Osun APC consensus candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, may be highly experienced in governance but may not have a general appeal, especially among thousands of Osun voters.
The party has been warned before now that to defeat the incumbent governor they must present a popular face that has a strong base backed with party structures. But the leadership within the APC have chosen their man and they know why he is the man for the job.
Party polarisation might work for Governor Ademola Adeleke in Osun state in several strategic ways, largely by allowing him to position himself as a stable alternative to the internal crisis plaguing the parties.
Escape from National Party Crises: Adeleke cited the severe national-level division within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a major reason for his defection. By moving to the Accord Party, a smaller, more stable platform, he removes himself from the debilitating internal conflicts and legal challenges that could otherwise jeopardize his re-election bid.
Appeal to Disenchanted Voters: The constant infighting, defections, and drama within the major polarized parties (PDP and All Progressives Congress – APC) can lead to voter fatigue and cynicism. Adeleke’s pitch for the Accord Party emphasizes its mission of “welfarism” and a “peaceful and dependable structure,” potentially attracting voters who prioritize stability and performance over partisan chaos.
Personal Popularity Over Party Loyalty: Proponents of the move argue that Adeleke’s personal popularity and “impressive performance” in office transcend traditional party lines. In a polarized environment where voters might be loyal to a candidate rather than an institution, his base of support may follow him to his new party, negating the need for a massive, established national structure.
Strategic Advantage Over Opponents: By making a decisive move early, Adeleke outsmarted opponents who expected him to remain vulnerable in a fractured PDP, forcing them to react to his new positioning. This creates a new dynamic in the political landscape ahead of the 2026 elections.
A few months back GovernorAdemola Adeleke was in a high spirit, giving reasons why he would win the next year gubernatorial election in the state.
“The people of Osun will choose me again because I have performed excellently. I introduced what I call fact-checking; anyone can go back and verify what is happening in Osun State. We are in a technology-driven era; you can simply Google it and confirm that we are doing well.
“I am very confident that I will win. If I could defeat an incumbent before, now that I am the governor, it will be even easier. In less than two years, we have achieved unprecedented progress in Osun State. I am so confident nobody can defeat us.
Adeleke insisted that he has no fear of the ruling All Progressives Congress, emphasising that he defeated them before and is confident he would do so again.
He said, “We are not afraid. Not at all! Why should I be scared? I am too popular! Everywhere I go, people show me love. Don’t you love me? I love you too! Everybody says Imole! Even members of the APC and other parties love me. Whenever they hold events, I attend and get a warm welcome, which shows the kind of goodwill I enjoy across party lines.
“If you are performing well, there is no reason to be afraid. During my first term, the so-called federal might was there, I saw their power and resources but we still prevailed. This time, I believe President Bola Tinubu will not want anything that could tarnish his administration’s image. My election will come just before the next presidential election, so I am confident it will be free, fair, and credible, that’s all we are asking for.”
–Isaac Abimbade
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