Following the death of the former President Muhammadu Buhari, there have been talks about what will happen to his support base and legion of followers. Muhammadu Buhari in his life time carried with him a massive electoral value that many politicians could only dream to have. He was a man adored by his people for many reasons. And the adoration and political support he enjoyed didn’t start and end within his home state, Katsina, it transcended most parts of the north. Indeed, it is believed that, anytime the late former President was on the ballot, he had a whopping 12 million votes spread across the northern region waiting for him. That was how compelling his political influence over the northern hemisphere was.
To many in northern Nigeria, Buhari was not merely a former head of state but a towering figure whose values and persona shaped their political identity. Revered as a symbol of moral uprightness and discipline, he commanded immense grassroots loyalty. His rise to the presidency in 2015 sparked widespread optimism, and even as his administration drew criticism for its failings in economic and security reforms, his base remained largely intact.
In the years following his presidency, Buhari retained a magnetic pull in political circles. His Kaduna residence became a hub of consultation, attracting aspirants across party lines seeking his counsel and perceived endorsement. However, with his demise, that political centre of gravity has disappeared, leaving a vacuum that multiple contenders are now vying to fill. And it is ot just about filling up a vacuum, it is, most importantly, about who inherits Buhari’s over 12 million votes and take over his political structure. And the major contenders for this are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nasir El-Rufai and of course, the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There is also Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who remains another formidable force. With his Kwankwasiyya movement attracting support from youth and lower-income groups across Kano and neighbouring states, Kwankwaso has demonstrated a unique ability to mobilise voters, even if he lacks Buhari’s nationwide stature.
The key question dominating discussions across the region is, who among these men has the capability and enjoys a support massive enough to earn him the right to inherit Buhari’s votes and support base? The North, once united under a single influential figure, now faces fragmentation, exacerbated by growing discontent with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Critics within the region point to the dominance of the former Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) bloc within the APC and allege that Buhari’s loyalists from the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) faction have been sidelined.
This perceived marginalisation has stirred resentment among northern stakeholders, prompting speculation about realignments ahead of the next election cycle. Political visits to Buhari in the months before his passing were more than courtesies—they were acts of protest and groundwork for new alliances.
For the Tinubu administration, the challenge is growing. With Buhari gone, his emotional leverage over northern voters is lost. But President Tinubu has proven time and time again that he is more than capable of taking over the Buhari support base and inherit his over 12 million votes. In the last couple of weeks, particularly after the death of Buhari, the President has been enjoying a significant vote of confidence passed by a large portion of the Northern power bloc. President Tinubu impressed them immensely with the impressive state burial he accorded the late President Buhari. Many also gave him thumbs up for the swift manner with which he reacted to the former President’s death. President Tinubu had vimmediately dispatched the Vice President, Kassim Shettima and his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, to head straight to London to arrange for the remains of his immediate poast predecessor to be brought back home for burial. And on the day of the burial, President Tinubu was not only physically present, he had been in Daura the day before to mourn with the people.
But perhaps President Tinubu’s biggest endorsement had come from the Director General of the Buhari Organisation, Alhaji Sule Hamma. Impressed with the way the President has stuck to his guns with his economic reforms and showing readiness to appoint more northerners into key positions in his government, he believes that Tinubu is in pole position to take over Buhari’s votes. Speaking during an interview on ARISE TV, Hamma explained that Tinubu’s approach to governance holds the key to winning over Northern votes. “If Bola Tinubu continues on the line of pursuing and of incorporting people and creating a mass base both for his support and participatory, he will surely pick up Buhari’s 12.7million votes.”
Coming from the man that heads the very powerful Buhari political organisation, many political observers see this as nothing but a clear endorsement for Tinubu, making him a clear favouritr to win the battle for Buharti’s support base.
The second endorsement came recently from the Emir of Daura. It came during the visit of the Presidenmt to his palace. Few vdays after the President paid the Emir a visit, the First Lady, Oluremi Tinubu, also visited him to condole with him on the death of former President Buhari.
“I am thankful to President Bola Tinubu, a good person I have been with in the last 30 years. The world can testify to what the president did to this state and the Daura Emirate. I am 97 years old, I have never seen a befitting state burial and honour done by a president like what Tinubu has done to Muhammadu Buhari.
“He came in person, spent days mourning the late former president, declared a public holiday for him, approved a presidential jet for the conveyance of the corpse, and was up and doing throughout the period. Now, he sent the First Lady, the wife of the Vice President, and the Governors’ wives.
“This respect and honour shown to us by the president will not be forgotten; we are going to reciprocate it. This is why in 2027 we are going for Tinubu,” Mr Faruq-Umar said. The First Lady, appreciating the endorsement, bowed from her seat as someone interpreted the statement to her.
With the backing of both the Director General of the Buhari organisation and the verymassive endorsement coming from the Emir of Daura, it is almost clear where the pendulum would most likely swing in 2027 as far as the Buhari 12 million bloc votes are concerned. And except Atiku Abubakar and the other frontrunners come up with a counter strategy to change the complexion of things, then it is not likely for the vote to go any other way but the Tinubu camp.
–WALE LAWAL (08037209290)
