…As Their Strategy To Dethrone Pres. TINUBU
For the past few weeks now, Nigerians have been waiting patiently for the next move by the Coalition of political bigwigs who want Pres. Tinubu out by all means in 2027. Going by their plan, they want to put in place an effective strategy, to as they call it, dismantle or dethrone Pres. Bola Tinubu from Power.
But Pres Tinubu has fired back saying remains unbothered. So far, they have not been able to come up with a solid Game plan, beyond revealing that some of Pres. Tinubu’s key opponents have all agreed to work together as a Coalition of forces.
In broad terms, those whose names have been recurring are Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, Mr. Peter Obi, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, former AG Malami ex-Sports Minister Solomon Dalung and many other anti-Tinubu forces.
For the past few weeks now, they have been meeting to finetune their strategies.
They had one major meeting in Abuja weeks, where far-reaching decisions were taken about the way forward, by the group.
Initially, the plan was for the Coalition to make use of SDP, the party El-Rufai decamped to, but that plan changed to another political party, the ADC. But after weighing all their options, the group decided to move elsewhere.
The new plan was for the Coalition to register a brand new political party. And make use of it.
Work started on this new move a few weeks back but not much progress has been made.
Sources within the Coalition say they have had serious difficulties in getting INEC to register their new party. Some of them insinuated that perhaps it was Pres. Bola Tinubu that gave INEC instructions not to register their new party. The President has denied this.
This was why the President came out during his Democracy Day Speech to deny having anything to do with INEC and the registration of parties.
The latest feelers coming out of the Coalition is that members would come out with their strategy by June 30. The big question is: will they make use of an existing party or still insist on registering a new party?
These are all the issues facing the Coalition leaders.
There is also the issue of how these political gladiators will share power equitably. It is such a complex issue, because virtually all the Key Players are eyeing the same slot.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who is still in PDP, wants to run for President. This seem to be his last hope going by age considerations. He is 78 now and will be 80 by 2027/
Peter Obi who is still in Labour Party also has a similar ambition to be the next President.
He was running mate to Atiku. And he ran for President the last time.
El-Rufai is also plotting his own strategies, some of which are not going as planned.
This former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El Rufai, who recently left the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), is struggling to establish himself firmly in his new political base. Since his defection, the transition has not been smooth. Immediately after leaving the APC, he outlined his intentions and goals within the SDP. His primary objective is to form a new alliance that can unseat the current President in the 2027 election. He aims to collaborate with notable figures like Peter Obi, who is facing challenges within his party, and also wants to rekindle his relationship with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Additionally, he sought the endorsement of former President Muhammadu Buhari and wants to connect with his original party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). El Rufai believes these factors will strengthen SDP’s position before the 2027 elections.
However, early indications suggest that his mission may be faltering. Since his defection, he has encountered several challenges and unexpected crises that are hindering his plans. Some political analysts have suggested that his calculations may be off the mark. Despite a series of behind-the-scene meetings, influential politicians have largely rebuffed his outreach, leaving the SDP without a solid foothold in key northern states.
“He reached out to key players, especially governors and senators, but none responded positively. Not even a state assembly member,” according to a source familiar with the situation.
Senator Aliyu Wadada, who represents Nasarawa West in the 10th Senate, recently announced plans to leave the Social Democratic Party (SDP) due to “irreconcilable differences” with Nasir El-Rufai. Wadada expressed concerns about El-Rufai’s political style, who prioritizes personal ambition over collective interest.
Wadada’s decision follows El-Rufai’s recent defection to the SDP from the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has sparked controversy and power struggles within the party. Some SDP members have expressed unease about El-Rufai’s growing influence, citing concerns about his overbearing style and lack of ideological consistency.
The internal conflicts within the SDP have led to:
Leadership Disputes and disagreements over recent appointments to the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) have caused tension among party members.
Some members accuse El-Rufai of trying to impose his influence on the party, while others oppose his growing role.
Critics argue that El-Rufai’s presence could undermine the party’s cohesion and values.
Even when El Rufai claimed that former President Muhammadu Buhari supported his move to the SDP, Buhari quickly dismissed the idea of any alliance or support that El Rufai claimed to have secured. A few months ago, El Rufai stated, “I left the APC with his (Buhari’s) full knowledge. I visited him and informed him of my decision to leave the party because I consult with him on all my matters.” However, Buhari, through a statement from his media aide, clarified that he would not abandon the ruling APC.
In the statement, Buhari reiterated his commitment to the party that granted him two terms in office: “I am an APC member, and I like to be addressed as such. I will try to popularize the party by all means,” the statement quoted Buhari as saying.
Even within the Social Democratic Party (SDP), El-Rufai has not been fully accepted. El-Rufai left the All Progressives Congress (APC) on March 10, 2025, citing a between his personal values and the direction of the APC as his primary reason for the departure.
However, during a recent press conference in Kaduna, Idris Inuwa, the SDP Assistant National Secretary for the Northwest zone, emphasized that El-Rufai’s entry into the party remains unverified, as he is yet to follow proper procedures. Inuwa stated, “It has come to our notice that certain individuals, including Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, are being rumored to have joined the SDP. However, neither the Chairman of the Kaduna North Local Government Chapter nor the leadership of the Unguwar Sarki ward has any record of these memberships.”
Akume. His attempts to build a rapport with the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party have not produced positive results in his engagements with the leader of the Obidient Movement. Given this context, there is speculation that he may defect from the SDP.
Despite numerous closed-door meetings and efforts, the former Governor of Kaduna has struggled to persuade any major political figures in the North West to align with the SDP. Currently, the SDP lacks a structure in all of the North West states, including Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara. He faces challenges in convincing people, even in his own political base, to join him, as his promises and plans have yet to materialize as he had hoped.
The former governor also reportedly tried to convince the Governor of Nasarawa State to join the SDP movement, but that effort ended in disappointment. Currently, the SDP has only two members in the National Assembly: Senator Godiya Akwashiki, representing Nasarawa North, and Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru from the Nassarawa Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency.
But can their Coalition defeat Pres. Tinubu, come 2027? A political analyst explained that “The possibility of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai’s Coalition beating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections remains very uncertain. This is because Pres. Tinubu is no walk over in the game of Politics. “But it will no doubt be a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s re-election bid.
There are some key points to consider. There is the power of Combined Strength: The Coalition’s combined votes from the 2023 elections far outweighs Tinubu’s 8 million votes, with Atiku and Obi garnering 13 million votes. This could translate to a winning majority if egos are set aside and strategic conditions are met.
There is the Issue of Public Frustration. The growing public frustration with the current administration could fuel support for the united opposition, potentially bringing a swift end to Tinubu’s tenure.
How about Internal Resistance? Insiders say the Coalition faces significant internal and external resistance, including PDP governors distancing themselves and elder statesmen voicing disapproval.
There is the issue of Party Loyalty. The Coalition’s choice of platform remains uncertain, with varied options being considered like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) or a new party.
The issue of Personal Ambitions of key players is also a big one. Insiders say the Personal ambitions of opposition leaders could hinder the alliance, and the APC has dismissed the opposition alliance as an unlikely threat to Tinubu’s re-election.
Overall, the success of the Coalition depends on various factors like, the ability of the Coalition members to set aside their differences and work towards a common goal.
There is also the need for Strategic Planning, effective strategic planning and execution to mobilize support and resources.
There is the issue of Public Support: The level of public support the Coalition can garner, particularly in key regions and demographics.
Can a new party work? Insiders say if a new party were to be formed, it would require a strong foundation, clear mission, and values. The process would involve defining the party’s purpose, registering with the relevant authorities, and building a leadership team. This is a lot of hardwork.
But Nasir El-Rufai, the former Kaduna State Governor has not given up. He has continued to mobilise for the Coalition with key opposition leaders to challenge President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
In the last 2 months or so, El-Rufai has confirmed that he’s working with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi. They’ve considered adopting the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their Coalition party. But are still exploring other possibilities.
The Coalition aims to unseat President Tinubu in the 2027 elections, with El-Rufai stating that their goal is to ensure Tinubu “goes back to Lagos”.
El-Rufai has been holding strategic meetings with top figures from various parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He recently met with Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and Prince Adewole Adebayo to discuss the proposed Coalition.
El-Rufai’s efforts aim to unite key opposition figures across the political spectrum, potentially creating a formidable challenge to APC’s dominance.
However, not everyone is supportive of El-Rufai’s Coalition. The Middle Belt Forum has vowed to work against any Coalition that considers El-Rufai for the position of Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate, citing concerns about his stance on certain issues.
The feeling is that El-Rufai’s Coalition plans may evolve as more meetings and consultations take place. The success of this Coalition will depend on various factors, including the ability of its leaders to work together effectively and rally support from different regions and interest groups.
Atiku Abubakar is indeed part of the Coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections. He is infact Central to it. This Coalition includes other prominent figures such as:
Peter Obi: former Labour Party presidential candidate Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State Governor, who has shifted from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Rotimi Amaechi: Former Transportation Minister.
The Coalition is seriously considering the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their platform of choice but they plan to spring a surprise. Despite some challenges, including zoning disputes and Atiku’s ambition, the coalition aims to present a united front against President Tinubu.
