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To Scatter Pres. TINUBU’s Southern Bloc Votes
The news about former President Goodluck Jonathan potentially running for the presidency in Nigeria in 2027 has been generating significant attention in recent weeks. Other potential aspirants are also preparing to compete with the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the upcoming election.
Since the former Vice President left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a few months ago, there have been numerous rumors suggesting that ex-President Jonathan might return to the PDP. In fact, several party members have been meeting with him, urging him to run under the PDP platform, but he has yet to make an official decision.
The possibility of his return to challenge the incumbent president, along with other notable figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, has not been well received by some key members of the All Progressives Congress (APC). They are uncomfortable with the idea of Jonathan being on the ballot against President Tinubu in 2027.
The APC has publicly warned the former president against pursuing a presidential run, alleging that his candidacy could weaken support for President Tinubu in the South-South region. This warning was articulated in a statement released on Sunday by the APC Media Network’s Director-General, Iniobong John.
The PDP has designated its 2027 presidential ticket for the South, with Jonathan reportedly among those being considered.
During our research, a prominent APC chieftain revealed that some influential northerners have been strategizing on ways to potentially thwart President Tinubu’s re-election. They believe that if significant measures are not taken before the next presidential election, the incumbent could secure not just a victory but a landslide win.
“This group believes that Jonathan has broader appeal, especially in the southern parts of Nigeria. They are aware that President Tinubu has gained considerable support in the South East and South South, with many governors in those states publicly endorsing him for a second term,” the chieftain asserted.
Some key opposition leaders are optimistic that if Jonathan decides to run, it would not only diminish President Tinubu’s votes in the South but also impact his chances of re-election. Peter Obi’s presence as another strong candidate from the South would further complicate matters, leaving only Atiku Abubakar as a prominent candidate from the North.
In some circles, it’s suggested that if Jonathan accepts to run, President Tinubu might feel betrayed, given their previously strong bond. Another political analyst noted that certain key northerners are fearful of a second term for President Tinubu. Some politically influential figures who supported Atiku in the last election, especially those connected to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, are reportedly planning to prevent Tinubu’s re-election. They may see Jonathan as a potential spoiler, similar to how Peter Obi affected Atiku’s votes in the last election.
A few weeks ago, the APC Media Network explicitly warned Jonathan to abandon any aspirations of running against a southern candidate in the upcoming presidential election. They urged the former president to resist what they termed “evil machinations” aimed at drawing him into another electoral defeat.
The statement read, “The All Progressives Congress Media Network wishes to address recent rumors that former President Goodluck Jonathan may be drafted into the 2027 presidential race to challenge President Bola Tinubu. We believe that this would be a disastrous political decision for him. Not only is he likely to be defeated by President Tinubu, but he also risks losing his status as an international statesman and the accolades he earned after conceding defeat and leaving office in 2015.”
The group emphasized that Jonathan’s chances of defeating an incumbent president are slim.
“Given his defeat as an incumbent president in 2015, it’s unlikely he could defeat another incumbent president, particularly one with President Tinubu’s strong hold on the political landscape. We are confident that President Tinubu’s popularity and achievements will continue to grow, making it an uphill battle for any opponent,” the group stated.
While urging Jonathan to prioritize his global statesmanship over “personal ambition,” the group added, “His legacy as a statesman and peacemaker has earned him international recognition, and we wouldn’t want to see him risk losing that reputation. As someone who demonstrated wisdom and humility in 2015, we encourage him to continue prioritizing national stability and progress.”
The APC Media Network further claimed that those promoting Jonathan’s candidacy are only seeking to divide the South and pave the way for a Northern candidate.
“It’s worth noting that those scheming to drag Jonathan into the race know he cannot defeat President Tinubu. Their true intention is to exploit the situation to disrupt Southern solidarity, potentially enhancing the chances of a Northern presidential candidate. However, this plot is dead on arrival. The Southern bloc remains committed to President Tinubu’s vision for a prosperous and united Nigeria,” the statement read.
In recent months, some key political figures from the South East have promised the president 2 million votes from the South East, while the South South is also seen as a stronghold for the President.
The opposition, led by Atiku Abubakar, appears to be working to prevent this outcome. He knows that this is his last chance.
However, there are still those who believe the former president won’t run, as he understands the dynamics of Northern politics and is unlikely to get involved.
Reports indicate that his Abuja home is frequently visited by individuals pressuring him to enter the race, but “he is unlikely to accept their entreaties because he believes their motives are selfish. Some people want to pull him into the race with the intention of undermining Southern solidarity.”
According to sources, Jonathan does not wish to be used to “undermine anyone’s chances. He is an international statesman and is content with that role.”
“He would not allow himself to be manipulated by selfish elements whose hidden agenda is to divide the South and benefit the North in the election. He is against divisive politics and believes the South should complete its eight-year term successfully before power shifts to the North,” an associate of the ex-President said.
In May, Jonathan’s wife, Dame Patience, hinted that her husband will not run in 2027, stating he would rather support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in continuing his term.
She also mentioned her support for the Renewed Hope Initiative led by First Lady Oluremi Tinubu.
Despite this, the call for Jonathan’s return intensified when it became clear that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had zoned its presidential ticket to the South.
Isaac Abimbade
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