As The Race For 2027 Hots Up
CPC Members Are To Move To SDP
Can Mallam El Rufai, Atiku, Aregbesola & Co beat Pres. Tinubu, come 2027?
That is the big question on the lips of many political analysts, since El-Rufai decamped from the APC a few days ago. APC is a party he helped give birth to. Before his resignation El-Rufai had hinted at the fact that he would be leaving the APC to galvanise the progressives to team up and form a formidable opposition to Pres. Tinubu who is believed to be preparing for a 2nd term. He said this much in his Arise TV interview.
Many of the reactions to his exit have been uncomplimentary. Many APC members say they won’t lose their sleep over the issue. They feel APC won’t lose anything with El-Rufai’s exit.
The APC and the presidency appear not to be losing any sleep over El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP, predicting that the former Kaduna State Governor would fail in his decision to join forces with those bent on defeating President Tinubu in 2027.
In Kaduna, where he was governor for 8 years, many of the APC chieftains there, see his exit as good riddance. They have been full of joy. Senator Shehu Sanni revealed in an interview with Channels TV that no one will miss El-Rufai. He revealed how the former governor had created problems in the state which led to the forceful exit of many of the key party chieftains from the party and the loss at the polls to the PDP.
Now that El-Rufai has left the APC in Kaduna, many of those who left the party years back are back and they have breathed a sigh of relief. Many of them don’t like him and they have accused him of frustrating them. They alleged that he is a difficult man to relate with.
El-Rufai himself has deep contempt for a few APC leaders, like the incumbent governor, Gov. Shehu Sani and the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuru Ribadu. In his ARISE TV interview weeks back, he specifically mentioned that Gov. Sanni & Ribadu are no longer his friends, because they don’t mean well for him.
Politically, many feel El-Rufai made the wrong move by opting out of the APC for SDP, which is seen as a relatively weak party. Some political analysts also feel he overrated his political rating by leaving APC for SDP.
So, what is El-Rufai’s plan? We gathered that he wants all the progressively minded politicans in the North to come together under one big umbrella or Coalition, in SDP to fight Tinubu in 2027. Over the last few month he has been going round to meet with many top politicians from various parties.
Since he left, he has also been reaching out to many more, consulting widely.
But the big question many are asking is: does El-Rufai have the clout to swing support to his side? Does he have the financial muscle to pursue a vigorous Vote Pres. Tinubu Out campaign between now and 2027? Can El-Rufai and someone like Atiku, his former boss, work harmoniously? How strong are the other key political players like Pastor Tunde Bakare, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola & co that he is working with?
There are a lot of permutations in the air.
There are strong indications that some former ministers of ex-President Muhammadu Buhari will move en masse to the Social Democratic Party.
Sunday Punch has predicted that at least 10 former members of Buhari cabinet will be moving to the SDP. What they’re waiting for is the finalisation of the party structure in their respective states, their report indicated.
The newspaper gathered that leading Buhari loyalists in the defections are the former National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, Abdullahi Adamu; ex-Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami; and former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan. Buhari’s name is also being mentionmed.
El-Rufai, who has been a vocal critic of Tinubu’s administration, disclosed that he in fact sought Buhari’s approval before leaving the APC.
“I left the APC with his (Buhari’s) full knowledge. I visited him on Friday and informed him of my decision to leave the party because I involve and consult with him on all my matters”.
“I have those I consult with in everything I do. I inform them of anything I intend to do, and when they demand that I keep off, I do. My first godfather is Muhammadu Buhari”, El-Rufai told the BBC Hausa service.
El-Rufai’s defection and Buhari’s purported approval has led to many defections because some other members of the APC in the North, especially those in CPC, have also been dumping the APC.
Recall that Buhari, El-Rufai, Malami, and Lawan were leaders of the Congress for Progress Change till the party joined Action Congress of Nigeria, a part of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, and members of the New Peoples Democratic Party to form the APC in 2013.
There is also the talk about coalition involving some aggrieved leaders of the APC.
Following El-Rufai’s defection, an APC Chieftain, Ahmad Kaita, who is a former Senator, and member of the House of Representatives from Katsina, also joined the SDP. He is not the only one. Others like former Kaduna State Commissioners for Agriculture, Ibrahim Hussaini; Justice, Aisha Dikko; Health, Amina Baloni; and Education, Halima Lawal; as well as former Head of Service, Hajiya Bari’atu Mohammed, also dumped the APC for the SDP.
Also, the Campaign Secretary of the APC in Gombe State during the 2015 General elections, Adamu Modibbo, has also left the party. Modibbo is now the Chairman of the SDP in the state.
A former Publicity Secretary of the APC in Borno State, Abdulaziz Galadima told Sunday Punch that he left the party because it deviated from the principles and ideology on which it was founded. Galadima also confirmed that many original CPC members would leave the APC for SDP or another party.”
High-profile politicians from PDP, defunct CPC, ACN and APC are among others who are set to leave.
Those involved across the geographical zones include serving and former governors and senators, former ministers, and past and present party officials.
Some include former governors of Rivers, Imo, Cross Rivers, Sokoto and Osun States, Rotimi Amaechi, Emeka Ihedioha, Liyel Imoke, Aminu Tambuwal and Rauf Aregbesola, respectively, as part of the stakeholders in the coalition movement. A former Senate President, David Mark; ex-national chairman of APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; a former Buhari’s Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, and the Senator representing Borno South, Ali Ndume, among others, were also involved in the coalition.
The CPC bloc of the party has also been leaving. CPC is a strong bloc in the APC, and if it is gone, it is doubtful if the APC will remain the same. Those leaving the APC are foundation members who have genuine followers. Apart from El-Rufai, other former governors are also involved in the political movement.
Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, is already in SDP. Dalung, left the APC for the SDP in 2022.
One of Aregbesola’s loyalists, said the former governor had been invited to join the SDP.
Aregbesola is part of the political movement involving some of his colleagues from the Buhari administration and other prominent politicians in the country.
The movement is even bigger than any single political party. Eventually, all these smaller parties will collapse into a coalition in 2027. A coalition is the main game. Aregbesola’s group, Omoluabi Progressives, left the APC a few months ago, citing ostracism, suspension, and expulsion of members without fair hearing, as well as the perceived neglect and marginalisation of the group within the APC structure.
The Saturday Sun has also come up with a similar analysis. It says ahead of the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria, forces appear to have risen up to stop the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu. It argues that this confirms the report it published in its December 14th edition, 2024.
According to them, leading the pack of the opposition against Tinubu, for now, is former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. With his defection from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), it seems the opposition against President Tinubu and the APC is taking shape gradually with aggrieved elements in the ruling party at the forefront.
El-Rufai has since reached out to the former Governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former APC National Chairmen, Senator Abdullahi Adamu and Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Although, Oyegun and Adamu were never in the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), there is an understanding among the leadership of the CPC for all of them remaining in the APC, to move en masse to the SDP.
Some say Buhari is involved in the entire plan, to reduce the voting strength of the APC in the North.
Most of the highly placed Northerners who spoke with Saturday Sun believe that they do not see El-Rufai being the rallying point in the North for Tinubu’s ouster.
But there are strong in dications that the North, as a body, is behind the “grand design” to dislodge President Tinubu. The League of Northern Democrats, the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Northern Elders Forum, and the traditional rulers in the region, among others, are all part of the plot to unseat the incumbent President.
