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ADEGOKE, BIMBO ADEKANMBI & SHARAFADEEN
The political battle for Oyo governorship is beginning to take a new shape. What initially looked like a straightforward contest between Governor Seyi Makinde and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) is increasingly developing into a 3-cornered battle involving Bimbo Adekanmbi of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Senator Sharafadeen Alli of the APC and Olooye Taofeek Adegboyega Adegoke of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The governor’s political structure is attempting to retain power through Adekanmbi and APC is seeking to wrest control of the state from the PDP-aligned camp through Sharafadeen Alli, while Adegoke and the ADC are positioning themselves as an alternative to both established camps.
The critical question is whether the three candidates have developed enough political strength to make the election a genuine 3-horse race.
The answer is increasingly Yes — but with an important qualification.
Adekanmbi currently possesses the advantage of the ruling political structure. Alli has the advantage of the APC’s national machinery and a potentially formidable opposition coalition. Adegoke, meanwhile, may have the most difficult task of all, but the ADC could become the wild card capable of changing the entire electoral calculation.
THE THREE MEN AND THREE DIFFERENT POLITICAL PROPOSITIONS
The three candidates represent three distinct political narratives. Adekanmbi represents Continuity.
He is seeking to extend the political legacy of the Makinde administration beyond 2027. The APM has formally adopted him as its governorship candidate, while a PDP-APM coalition has presented Muftau Open-Salawu as his running mate.
Alli represents the APC’s Change agenda.
A sitting senator and experienced politician, Alli is the APC’s candidate and is expected to benefit from the party’s national structure and President Bola Tinubu’s influence in the South-West. APC leaders in Oyo have publicly reaffirmed him as their consensus candidate.
Adegoke represents the third-force option.
The Ibadan chief emerged as the ADC’s governorship candidate after winning the party’s primary with 16,051 votes, defeating Bisi Ilaka and 3 other aspirants.
His campaign is increasingly presenting the ADC as an alternative to both the PDP/APM and APC establishments.
ADEKANMBI: THE
MAN TO BEAT?
If political structure alone were enough to win elections, Adekanmbi would arguably be the favourite. His greatest advantage is that he is associated with the outgoing governor’s political machinery.
Makinde has spent seven years building a formidable political structure across Oyo State. His administration has produced elected officials, political appointees, loyalists and grassroots networks. Adekanmbi is attempting to inherit that structure.
The APM adopted him as its Consensus candidate in May, with Makinde present at the primary. The governor, however, advised him not simply to inherit his political enemies but to chart his own course.
HIS BIGGEST ADVANTAGE
Adekanmbi has access to the political network of a sitting governor. That is an enormous advantage.
Members of the Oyo State House of Assembly have already endorsed his candidacy, with Speaker Adebo Ogundoyin leading lawmakers to express support for him. The PDP-APM arrangement also gives the ticket access to an existing political organisation.
HIS BIGGEST PROBLEM
The danger is that the same political association that gives Adekanmbi strength could also become his weakness. If voters believe the 2027 election is simply a referendum on eight years of Makinde’s administration, Adekanmbi will carry both the achievements and shortcomings of the government. The opposition will almost certainly attempt to frame the contest in those terms.
ALLI: THE APC’S BEST OPPORTUNITY?
Senator Sharafadeen Alli presents a different proposition. He is not an outsider trying to build a political structure from scratch. He has been involved in Oyo politics for many years and currently represents Oyo South in the Senate.
More importantly, he has the APC platform behind him. APC leaders have formally presented him as the party’s governorship candidate, while the party has also unveiled candidates for other elective positions.
That means Alli is not fighting merely for personal political survival. He is leading the APC’s attempt to capture Agodi House.
THE TINUBU ADVANTAGE
The APC’s biggest strategic asset may be the presidency. President Tinubu remains a powerful political figure in the South-West, and APC will hope that the 2027 presidential election creates a political environment favourable to its candidates. But there is a warning here.
Oyo voters have demonstrated that they can distinguish between candidates at different levels. Therefore, Alli cannot assume that support for Tinubu automatically translates into support for him. He will have to build his own coalition.
THE APC’S INTERNAL QUESTION
Alli’s greatest challenge is whether the APC can genuinely unite behind him. Oyo APC has several heavyweight politicians, including former governorship candidate Teslim Folarin and former minister Adebayo Adelabu.
The question is whether all the party’s major political tendencies will work enthusiastically for Alli. Recent meetings among major APC figures have highlighted the continuing importance of reconciliation and coordination ahead of 2027. If APC achieves genuine unity, Alli’s chances could rise dramatically. If the party goes into the election divided, the Makinde-backed camp could benefit.
ADEGOKE: THE WILDCARD
The emergence of Oloye Taofeek Adegboyega Adegoke has complicated the race. Before the ADC became a major factor, the political conversation was largely framed around PDP/APM versus APC.
Adegoke has changed that calculation. His victory in the ADC primary gives him a legitimate platform, while the party’s broader political realignment could provide him with access to politicians and voters who are dissatisfied with both major camps. The ADC candidate is also beginning to articulate a distinct policy agenda.
On August 17, Adegoke unveiled a first-100-days programme focusing on agriculture, education, local government autonomy, job creation, infrastructure and economic development.
That is significant.
It suggests that his campaign is trying to move beyond the politics of personalities and present itself as an alternative government.
WHY ADEGOKE COULD SURPRISE EVERYBODY
The ADC’s strongest argument is simple: Many voters may not want either continuity under Makinde’s political camp or a return to APC control. That creates political space for a third candidate.
The ADC could attract:
voters dissatisfied with the PDP/APM; APC members unhappy with the party’s internal politics; younger voters seeking an alternative; political figures who have lost influence in the established parties;
voters who want a fresh political platform.
The current political atmosphere suggests that the ADC is already attracting significant attention.
Recent reporting has described a tense political environment involving the ADC, APC and APM, including disputes over campaign billboards. That may be an indication that the ADC is no longer being treated as an insignificant third party.
BUT CAN ADC REALLY WIN?
This is the central question. Being a strong third force is not the same as winning a governorship election.
Oyo is a large state with 33 local government areas. To win, Adegoke would need to build a statewide structure capable of competing in Ibadan, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo, Ibarapa and other parts of the state.
He would also have to satisfy the constitutional spread requirement: a candidate must secure the highest number of votes and at least 25 per cent of votes in at least two-thirds of the state’s local government areas to win outright.
That makes the ADC’s task enormous. The party needs not merely enthusiasm in parts of Ibadan. It needs geographical spread.
THE IBADAN FACTOR
All three candidates will be paying enormous attention to Ibadan. Adekanmbi has the advantage of the Makinde political network. Alli has the APC structure and his own political experience.
Adegoke has an interesting advantage: his identity as an Ibadan chief and his existing connections within the city. But none of the candidates can win Oyo State through Ibadan alone.
The election will ultimately be determined by how successfully each candidate converts urban support into statewide votes.
OKE-OGUN COULD BE DECISIVE
Oke-Ogun is likely to become another major battleground. Candidates will need strong local structures and credible political figures in the zone. The same applies to Ogbomoso.
The candidate who wins substantial support across the state’s different political blocs will be in a much stronger position.
This is where Alli’s APC structure could become important.
It is also where Adekanmbi will need to demonstrate that Makinde’s political coalition remains intact beyond the governor’s immediate political base.
For Adegoke, these areas represent both an opportunity and a challenge. If ADC can build unexpected strength outside Ibadan, the three-horse theory becomes much more credible.
WHERE WILL THE THIRD-FORCE VOTES COME FROM?
The 2027 election may ultimately be decided by voters who are not firmly committed to any of the 3 candidates. Suppose Adekanmbi has the strongest PDP/APM base. Suppose Alli has the strongest APC base. The decisive votes could then come from citizens who are dissatisfied with both.
That is the constituency Adegoke must capture. His campaign does not necessarily need to become stronger than both APC and APM everywhere. It needs to become strong enough in enough places to break the traditional two-party calculation. That is a much more achievable objective.
ADC’S BIGGEST STRENGTH
Freshness. Adegoke can campaign as someone outside the traditional PDP-APC power struggle.
He can tell voters that Oyo does not have to choose between two established political establishments.
That message could resonate, particularly among voters who believe neither major party has adequately addressed unemployment, security, education, infrastructure and economic hardship.
THE THREE-HORSE RACE THEORY
So, is Oyo 2027 genuinely a three-horse race? Politically, increasingly yes. Electorally, not yet conclusively. There is an important distinction. Adekanmbi and Alli currently possess more established political structures.
Adegoke has the potential to disrupt the race, but he must demonstrate that the ADC can translate its growing visibility into a statewide electoral machine.
If it succeeds, the election could become one of the most unpredictable governorship contests in the South-West.
OLOYE ADEGOKE — ADVANTAGE: THIRD-FORCE APPEAL
Adegoke’s biggest asset is that he can present himself as the alternative to both established camps.
His challenge is organisation. He must turn the ADC from an interesting alternative into a serious statewide electoral machine.
