Many people don’t know that Gov. Ademola Adeleke of Osun State is very popular in Osogbo, the capital of Osun State. It took the Wednesday commissioning of the Lameco flyover in Osogbo for many people to know how popular he is. The turnout was massive and unprecedented. And the Ataoja of Osogboland, Oba Jimoh Olanipekun, even came out to eulogise the governor for the infrastructural feat he has recorded in his domain. Oba Olanipekun thanked the Governor for his mega projects in Osogbo and declared support for his re-election bid. He showed his heartfelt acknowledgement of the developmental strides recorded under the Adeleke administration. He openly endorsed the Governor for a 2nd term, based on what he described as unprecedented performance in office.
As the state counts down to the August 15 elections, the Wednesday event made many realise how popular Adeleke is and how it will help his performance when the elections come.
Politically, Osogbo is considered to be a swing local government area (LGA). There are over 98,000 registered voters in Osogbo. It is a civil servant-dominated capital. But Adeleke has won there before. In the 2022 governorship election, Gov. Adeleke, who was then in PDP, won Osogbo with 30,401 votes, and APC’s Oyetola recorded 22,952. PDP swept all 30 LGA chairmanship seats and 332 councillorship seats in the last LG Election, with APC having withdrawn. Osogbo is not only the capital of Osun State, it is also the zone that decides, because it has the highest voter density. The Civil Servants also play a major role in terms of the voting population. It also has a huge Youth population.
So, Osogbo is going to be a battleground for Adeleke and the APC candidate, AMBO.
In 2022, Osogbo & neighbouring town, Olorunda, gave Adeleke a combined 10,090 votes, about 36% of his statewide winning margin. So Osogbo was critical to Adeleke’s victory. Why did Adeleke do well in Osogbo the last time? Political analysts point to 4 factors in Osogbo/Olorunda’s turnaround to the PDP. They are the Civil Service disillusionment with APC, AP’s internal wars, Youth Enthusiasm and Urban activism. There is also Adeleke’s performance optics. He connected better than policy lectures.
The battle for Osogbo votes right now is between Adeleke, who is in the Accord Party and APC’s Bola Oyebamiji. The PDP is not fielding a candidate for the forthcoming elections.
Many political analysts say Adeleke is strong enough to win Osogbo votes but he has to fight for it with the APC. The Ataoja of Osogbo’s Speech revealed how strong Adeleke is in Osogbo. Ataoja is the most influential traditional authority in Osogbo. So if he openly backs Gov. Adeleke like he did last Wednesday, it gives Adeleke 3 big advantages. There is the traditional legitimacy which will help Mobilisation.
Kabiyeesi’s speech neutralises APC’s Osogbo influence. The third factor is that Osogbo is considered a swing city. Many see Ataoja’s speech as a de facto endorsement of Adeleke. As someone said, when the Ataoja shows up and speaks well at a governor’s project, it’s the palace saying this government is working for Osogbo. It carries weight. The Civil Servants are also happy. They use the bridge daily. The market women & artisans will align. The Elders will key into the King’s logic.
So, the Ataoja has thrown his weight behind Gov. Ademola Adeleke, profusely praising him for bringing development to the state capital. Speaking in Yoruba last Wednesday at the commissioning of a new bridge built by the Adeleke administration, the monarch commended the governor’s efforts to transform Osogbo. The Ataoja said the administration’s projects have brought visible development to the capital, noting that residents are feeling the impact. The bridge commissioning drew traditional chiefs, market leaders, civil servants and residents of Osogbo 7 Olorunda LGAs.
Political analysts say the royal endorsement is significant ahead of the 2026 governorship election. Gov. Adeleke who clinched the Accord Party ticket in Osogbo, described the bridge as part of his infrastructure consolidation agenda for economic prosperity.
Osogbo falls under the Osun Central Senatorial District. LGAs in Osun Central are Osogbo, Olorunda, Ifelodun, Boripe, Ila, Irepodun, Odo-Otin, Boluwaduro, Ejigbo, Ola-Oluwa.
Why does winning Osogbo matter? City People gathered that Osogbo is the capital city and the largest voting bloc in Osun Central. Whoever wins Osogbo usually wins the district. Boripe & Ila are APC strongholds. Oyetola is from Boripe; Akande is from Ila. From experience, Ifelodun & Ejigbo are swing LGAs, and they usually decide Osun Central votes.
So, Osogbo LGA is the capital and most influential LGA in Osun Central. Analysts say if you control Osogbo, you are 70% of the way to winning the district. Many say what will help Adeleke are the infrastructural work in that zone. He did 2 flyovers in Osogbo. It has been commissioned, and the 2nd will be commissioned before the elections.
He transformed Iwo, Ila, Ife & Ilesa with a dual carriageway.
What exactly did Ataoja say? Kabiyeesi said Imole ni Osogbo, a o si ni wo Okunkun (Osogbo is used to light (Imole); we would not go into darkness). This is a very deep statement. He repeated it 3 times. He thanked Gov. Adeleke, whom he called Ademola Nurudeen. He prayed for him. He said if he were to be a politician, he would have instructed all the indigenes, residents and politicians in Osogbo to campaign and vote for Adeleke en masse. Kabiyeesi said someone asked him why he is so bold to come out and back Adeleke. How about if he doesn’t win? Kabiyeesi said Adeleke will win. He thanked the Governor for his giant strides in Osogbo.
