Politically, this period has not been the best of times for President Tinubu’s administration. From President Donald Trump’s threatened military invasion and the attendant panic it sent across the country to the sudden surge in kidnapping, banditry and senseless killings across the country, the President has appears to have a whole lot on his plate than he can handle. And then there is the overwhelming speculation that the north has grown unbearably frustrated with the Tinubu administration, largely because of what it describes as lopsided appointments that have alienated the north and the biting effect of his administration’s economic reforms on the northern region. The position of some northern personalities, particularly members of the opposition party is that the north will not vote for the APC in 2027. They have been telling anyone that cares to listen that President Tinubu will be booted out of Aso rock by 2027.
But those who know, especially those who work closely with the President will tell you he is not losing sleep over the speculations. He is not worried. The man they call the call the Master Strategist is confident the north remains solidly behind him. And President Bola Tinubu’s confidence in Northern support stems from several factors. Apart from the work he has put in long before now, and the many northern bridges he has built over the years, the President has institutionalised strong alliances he has built across Nigeria, including the North. This has enabled him acquire a significant support base among Northern elites and politicians.
Another factor that has been helping the President make strong incursions into the northern region even before the campaigns for 2027 begins, is the Yoruba Welfare Group set up across Nigeria’s 19 Northern states which has pledged unwavering support for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid, citing the long-standing bond between the Yoruba and Northern communities. No doubt the Yoruba and northern communities enjoy one of the most enduring tribal relationships in the country, devoid of acrimony and hostilities.
Perhaps one of President Tinubu’s northern support emanates from the Northern Governors’ endorsement of his administration. The Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) has passed a vote of confidence in Tinubu, endorsing his Renewed Hope Agenda and re-election bid. With the massive weight of the northern governors behind him, President Tinubu is certainly not losing sleep over his re-election bid.
Former Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, has also made a resounding projection of the votes President Tinubu will get in 2027. He has predicted that Tinubu will secure over 75% of Northern votes in 2027, citing the region’s 63% support in 2023. His projection is predicated on grassroots mobilization. The Tinubu House-to-House Network is actively mobilizing support for Tinubu in the North, with Lawan appointed as National Patron.
One of the things working in favour of the current administration is the overwhelming support it still enjoys from strong northern political power blocs. Just a few month ago, the Director General of the Buhari Organisation, Alhaji Sule Hamma, had given President Tinubu perhaps it’s biggest endorsement. Impressed with the way the President has stuck to his guns with his reforms and showing readiness to appoint more northerners into key positions in his government, he believes that Tinubu is in pole position to take over Buhari’s votes. Speaking during an interview on ARISE TV, Hamma explained that Tinubu’s approach to governance holds the key to winning over northern votes. “If Bola Tinubu continues on the line of pursuing and of incorporating people and creating a mass base both for his support and participatory, he will surely pick up Buhari’s 12.7million votes.”
Coming from the man that heads the very powerful Buhari political organisation, many political observers see this as nothing but a clear endorsement for Tinubu, making him a clear favourite to win the battle for Buhari’s support base.
Only a few days ago, former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, Anthony Sani, assured that Northerners will still vote for Tinubu come 2027. He also claimed northerners don’t trust Peter Obi enough to allow him to rule Nigeria for one single tenure. Sani also noted that the politics of zoning may not favour Atiku in his bid to defeat Tinubu.
For one, he also believes Tinubu will be the one to benefit from the much touted Buhari’s 12 million votes spread across the northern region. He said recently: “President Bola Tinubu may still prevail. This is because former President Buhari had told the nation and his supporters that he was not favorably disposed to the coalition and what it stands for.
This is because he is committed to APC which made him president twice. Given the nature of Buhari’s supporters, they would not like to betray him even in the grave.
President Bola Tinubu can still get Northern votes because of Buhari’s supporters who would not like to betray Buhari. This is because he had told them he was in APC and died in APC.”
When Anthony Sani was asked if he thinks the ADC coalition can defeat Tinubu, he replied pointedly: “The opposition may not defeat President Bola Tinubu because the dynamics are not in favor of the coalition. For example, unless President Tinubu does too badly- which I hope not, the North will prefer to let President Bola Tinubu complete the tenure meant for the South. This is because he is the only southerner who has only one term to go. The North cannot trust Peter Obi that he will do one term. You would recall President Jonathan pledged to do one term but reneged.
The politics of zoning does not favor Atiku precisely because all southerners and most northerners favor the idea of zoning in the interest of unity and stability of the country. The politics do not favor the coalition. Whether the ticket is Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Amaechi, the result will be the same.”
The highly experienced Sani who boasts a vast knowledge of northern politics added further: “Apart from the fact that the political dynamics does not favor the coalition, there is the challenge of the fact that the opposition has not told the nation what it will do differently from what Tinubu administration is doing.
You would recall Atiku, Peter Obi, and Bola Tinubu campaigned for removal of fuel subsidy as a non-choice situation. And when the results of the elections were out, Atiku got 7m votes, Peter Obi garnered 6.1m votes and Bola Tinubu got 8m votes. These suggest Nigerians saw removal of fuel subsidies as a non-choice factor.
So, in the absence of a real alternative course of action, the coalition does not constitute a viable platform that can adopt ADC to defeat the ruling party. More so, the south south and part of south east are moving to APC.”
Many also believe that the encomiums and accolades President Tinubu received for it’s impressive handling of the funeral of the late immediate past president Muhammadu Buhari, may also contribute largely to the overwhelming support the President currently enjoys.
The second major endorsement came from the Emir of Daura. It came during the visit of the President to his palace. Few days after the President paid the Emir a visit, the First Lady, Oluremi Tinubu, also visited him to condole with him on the death of former President Buhari.
An elated Emir of Daura said: “I am thankful to President Bola Tinubu, a good person I have been with in the last 30 years. The world can testify to what the president did to this state and the Daura Emirate. I am 97 years old, I have never seen a befitting state burial and honour done by a president like what Tinubu has done to Muhammadu Buhari.”
“He came in person, spent days mourning the late former president, declared a public holiday for him, approved a presidential jet for the conveyance of the corpse, and was up and doing throughout the period. Now, he sent the First Lady, the wife of the Vice President, and the governors’ wives.
“This respect and honour shown to us by the president will not be forgotten; we are going to reciprocate it. This is why in 2027 we are going for Tinubu,”
With the backing of both the Director General of the Buhari orhganisation and the very massive endorsement coming from the Emir of Daura, it is almost clear where the pendulum would most likely swing in 2027 as far as the Buhari 12 million bloc votes are concerned. And except Atiku Abubakar and the other frontrunners come up with a counter strategy to change the complexion of things, then it is not likely for the vote to go any other way but the Tinubu camp.
–WALE LAWAL
(08037209290)
