How He Plans To Defeat Gov. ADELEKE In OSUN?
How He Plans To Deliver OSUN To ATIKU?
How His Party Plans To Defeat TINUBU?
Right now in Osun State, a lot of people are talking about former Osun governor, and Minister, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola who is currently engaged in the biggest battle of his political career.
This veteran politician is saddled with a lot of responsibilities. He is currently the Interim Secretary of the ADC and he has been saddled with 4 Big Challenges. The first is the management of the party Secretariat of the ADC. The second is how to beat Gov. Adeleke and secure Osun State for ADC come 2026. The 3rd is how to win votes for the ADC across the 5 South West states. And the 4th is how to ensure that his party, the ADC will defeat Pres. Tinubu in 2027. These are uphill tasks, no doubt.
Recall that he recently promised to win votes in his former Lagos stronghold of Alimoso in Lagos, but he failed woefully.
Right now, he is fighting many battles. He is not in good terms with Pres. Tinubu, his former benefactor. He is not in good terms with Gov. Adeleke who embraced him at some point. He is also not in good terms with Osun APC leaders.
What is his game plan you may ask. Uncomfirmed reports suggest that he is eyeing becoming running mate to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in ADC, to enable them battle Pres. Tinubu in 2027.
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola’s game plan centered around his political group, The Omoluabi Progressives, contesting the 2026 Osun State governorship election independently.
Aregbesola has ruled out forming an alliance with other political groups or individuals, opting to pursue his political interests separately.
He is reportedly fielding a candidate for Osun governorship, while also being interested in who emerges as President. Who he intends to field in Osun no one knows.
Aregbesola has signaled his dissent by hosting former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and making anti-Tinubu gestures, which is seen as a high-stake gamble.
He has been mobilizing heavily across Southwest states to woo members into the Action Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition party he’s part of.
Aregbesola met with former Osun State Governor, Olagunsoye Oyinlola recently to persuade him to join the ADC.
Aregbesola’s strategy has been met with criticism, with some questioning his decision to openly confront President Tinubu and Governor Ademola Adeleke. His wife has also publicly urged caution, warning against unnecessary conflict.
Rauf Aregbesola is a key figure in the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
He was appointed as the Interim National Secretary of the ADC on July 1, 2025, as part of a broader opposition coalition aiming to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
Ogbeni Aregbesola envisions the ADC as a party with a clear ideological compass, grounded in democratic values, social justice, rule of law, and accountability. He aims to build a party that listens to and works for the people, not just during elections, but every single day.
As Interim National Secretary, Aregbesola plans to implement reforms that promote internal democracy, transparency, and fair intra-party competition. He also wants to empower party structures from the ward to the national level and establish autonomous wings for key interest groups.
Aregbesola intends to adopt international best practices in party organization, administration, and ethics, drawing inspiration from successful political models in countries like South Africa, Sweden, Chile, and Kenya.
As part of the opposition coalition, Aregbesola’s ADC is working to unseat the ruling APC in the 2027 general elections. The coalition includes prominent figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai.
Aregbesola’s appointment and vision for the ADC signal a new direction for the party, focusing on ideological depth, internal democracy, and people-centered governance .
Can Ogbeni Aregbesola win resoundingly in Osun?
Political analysts say his chances of winning in Osun State depends on various factors:
Aregbesola’s Confidence: He has expressed optimism about winning the 2026 Osun gubernatorial election, stating that his group, the Omoluabi Progressives, will contest and win the election independently without forming alliances with other parties or individuals.
Party Strength: The African Democratic Congress (ADC), which Aregbesola is a part of, will need to demonstrate strong grassroots support and a solid organizational structure to win the election.
Opponent’s Strength: Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke has denied rumors of defecting to the ADC or allying with Aregbesola, and has reaffirmed his commitment to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Adeleke’s track record and popularity among Osun voters will impact Aregbesola’s chances.
Electoral Dynamics: The 2026 Osun gubernatorial election will likely be influenced by various factors, including the performance of the incumbent government, the appeal of Aregbesola’s candidacy, and the overall political landscape in the state.
Given these factors, it’s difficult to predict with certainty whether Aregbesola can win in Osun. However, his confidence and the ADC’s potential strength could make for a competitive election.
Rauf Aregbesola is a strong politician no doubt, with a notable track record.
Don’t forget that Aregbesola served as the Governor of Osun State from 2010 to 2018, implementing various development projects and policies that earned him recognition.
He was appointed Minister of Interior in 2023, tasked with overseeing the country’s internal security and immigration services.
Aregbesola has maintained a strong presence in Osun State and beyond, with a significant following and influence within the Yoruba region.
During his tenure as Governor, Aregbesola introduced several initiatives aimed at improving the lives of Osun residents, including projects in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Aregbesola has faced criticisms and controversies throughout his career, including disputes with other politicians and allegations of impropriety.
His strength as a politician lies in his experience, influence, and ability to mobilize support.
Aregbesola has been involved in coalition talks with other stakeholders, including Atiku and Peter Obi, to challenge President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Can Aregbesola & his co-travellers defeat Pres Tinubu in 2027?
That is very unlikely, revealed a political analyst. Rauf Aregbesola’s chances of defeating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election is uncertain. While Aregbesola has expressed confidence in the African Democratic Congress’s (ADC) ability to unseat Tinubu, some analysts have raised doubts about his potential impact, because of his waning Influence. Aregbesola’s influence is believed to have waned since he left office as Governor of Osun State. His political trajectory, which was once closely tied to Tinubu’s, may not be enough to sway voters.
The ADC coalition, which includes prominent figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, faces internal disputes and credibility issues. Some members have questioned the coalition’s legitimacy and effectiveness.
President Tinubu’s administration has implemented various reforms, which has positively impacted his popularity among certain voter groups.
But Aregbesola has a lot of potentials. As the interim national secretary of the ADC, Aregbesola is well-positioned to mobilize support for the party and potentially challenge Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Aregbesola’s efforts to build a coalition with other opposition leaders could strengthen the ADC’s chances of defeating Tinubu.
Aregbesola’s vision for the ADC includes implementing reforms that promote internal democracy, transparency, and fair intra-party competition.
