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In The 6 Geopolitical Zones
From his South-East stronghold to the North-West challenge — can Peter Obi, the former Anambra governor turn his 2023 momentum into a national victory?
The 2027 presidential election is increasingly shaping up as a contest in which Peter Obi cannot be dismissed as a regional candidate, but neither can he yet be described as a nationally dominant contender. The former Anambra State governor enters the race with something few opposition politicians can match: a strong and highly motivated support base that cut across parts of the South, the North-Central and major urban centres in 2023. But he also faces a fundamental challenge.
In the 2023 presidential election, Obi finished third nationally. He won the South-East overwhelmingly, performed strongly in the South-South and North-Central, but struggled badly in the North-West and North-East. The 2027 election, however, is a different political contest. The question is whether the Obidient movement can evolve from a powerful protest and reform movement into a nationwide electoral machine capable of winning enough states and votes to defeat an incumbent president. The answer may be found in the 6 geopolitical zones.
- SOUTH-EAST: PETER OBI’S FORTRESS
There is no question about where Peter Obi is strongest. The South-East remains his political fortress. Obi won all 5 South-East states. The scale of the victory was extraordinary. It established Obi as the most powerful presidential political figure in the region in the 2023 election and gave birth to an enduring political movement that has remained particularly strong among young voters. Anambra is undoubtedly Obi’s strongest state. He served as governor of the state and remains deeply associated with its political identity. His challenge is not winning Anambra. His challenge is maintaining overwhelming support while increasing his performance elsewhere. In Abia, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo, Obi’s 2023 performance demonstrated that his appeal was not confined to Anambra. He swept the region. The critical question for 2027 is whether he can repeat that performance under a different political platform and amid potentially stronger competition.
- SOUTH-SOUTH: OBI’S SECOND MAJOR STRONGHOLD
The South-South is arguably Obi’s most important zone outside the South-East. Obi won 5 of the six states in the regional breakdown. That performance demonstrated that his appeal extended beyond Igbo-speaking states. This is politically significant. One of the biggest criticisms of Obi’s 2023 campaign was that his strongest support was concentrated in the South-East. The South-South results provided evidence that his coalition had the potential to move beyond ethnicity. Rivers is potentially one of the most important states in the region. The state has a sophisticated political structure and enormous influence in national politics. Obi’s ability to build a strong organisation there will be crucial. The political realignment involving Governor Siminalayi Fubara, former governor Nyesom Wike and other political actors makes Rivers particularly difficult to predict. Delta is also important. Obi performed strongly in the state in 2023, and the PDP’s traditional influence remains significant. The question is whether Obi can retain his previous support while building a stronger party structure. Both Edo & Cross River offer opportunities but cannot be taken for granted. Obi’s campaign must convert his national popularity into polling-unit organisation. These states have strong local political structures and established party networks. Obi will need alliances with influential local politicians if he wants to reproduce his 2023 performance.
- NORTH-CENTRAL: OBI’S MOST IMPORTANT TEST OF NATIONAL ACCEPTANCE
The North-Central may be the most revealing zone in determining whether Obi can truly become a national presidential candidate. In 2023, Obi obtained 1,415,577 votes, representing 31.01 per cent in the zone. Tinubu won with 1,760,993 votes, while Atiku scored 1,162,087. Obi’s performance here was remarkable because the North-Central is geographically and politically different from the South-East. It demonstrated that his movement could attract support beyond his traditional regional base. Plateau was one of the areas where Obi’s movement showed considerable strength. The state’s political diversity and strong Christian communities gave his message considerable traction. Benue could also be an important battleground. The state’s political calculations often extend beyond straightforward party loyalty, and Obi’s anti-establishment appeal could remain attractive. The FCT is particularly important. Abuja contains a large population of young professionals, civil servants, students, entrepreneurs and politically conscious voters. Obi’s message of economic reform, accountability and good governance has traditionally resonated strongly among such voters. His challenge is to convert that popularity into turnout. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa and Niger states are more difficult. APC has substantial structures in the region, and local political calculations may override national sentiment. Obi therefore needs a sophisticated grassroots campaign.
- SOUTH-WEST: THE BIGGEST SOUTHERN CHALLENGE
The South-West is where Obi faces perhaps his biggest challenge in southern Nigeria. In 2023, he obtained 846,478 votes, representing 19.90 per cent of the zone’s valid votes. Tinubu dominated the region with 2,279,407 votes, or 53.59 per cent, while Atiku scored 941,941. The numbers reveal both Obi’s weakness and his opportunity. He did not win the region. But he demonstrated that he could obtain significant votes even in Tinubu’s political backyard. Lagos is particularly interesting. Although Tinubu won the state overall, Obi’s performance was remarkable. In the 2023 presidential election, Obi actually obtained slightly more votes than Tinubu in the state according to the certified state result breakdown: Obi polled 582,454 votes, while Tinubu scored 572,606. This is perhaps one of the strongest pieces of evidence that Obi’s appeal is not confined to the South-East. Lagos contains millions of young and urban voters and remains one of Obi’s most important targets. However, Tinubu’s political organisation in Lagos is formidable. Oyo could be more competitive because of the state’s distinct political culture and the influence of Governor Seyi Makinde. The emergence of broader opposition arrangements could significantly affect the state’s presidential voting pattern. In Ogun, Obi has an opportunity to expand his support among younger and urban voters, but APC remains strong. The state’s political dynamics have demonstrated that presidential voting can diverge from traditional party loyalties. Ondo & Ekiti states present greater challenges for Obi because of APC’s organisational strength and established political structures.
- NORTH-WEST: THE MAKE-OR-BREAK ZONE
This is where Peter Obi’s 2027 ambition will face its biggest test. In 2023, Obi obtained only 350,182 votes, representing 5.23 per cent of valid votes in the North-West. Tinubu won 2,652,235 votes, Atiku obtained 2,329,540 and Rabiu Kwankwaso secured 1,268,250. The numbers show the enormous gap Obi needs to close. But there is now a potentially important change. Sen. Rabiu Kwankwaso, the former Kano governor is one of the most influential political figures in the North-West, particularly in Kano. The political alignment between Obi and Kwankwaso is an attempt to broaden their combined reach. If properly organised, that alliance could radically change Obi’s electoral map. Kano is the biggest opportunity. Kwankwaso’s political movement has demonstrated that it can mobilise millions of voters. Obi’s challenge is to convert Kwankwaso’s regional influence into votes for a joint presidential ticket. Kaduna could also be important. The state has a substantial urban population and politically sophisticated electorate. Obi’s reform message could find support, but APC and PDP have strong structures. Katsina is traditionally difficult territory for southern opposition candidates. Obi will need strong northern political allies. Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi and Jigawa states will test the ability of the Obi-Kwankwaso political structure to penetrate rural areas. Without a strong northern partner, Obi’s chances in the North-West would remain limited. With Kwankwaso as a genuine political partner and a functioning grassroots structure, the zone becomes far more competitive.
- NORTH-EAST: THE HARDEST TERRITORY
The North-East was also a major challenge for Obi in 2023. He received only 315,107 votes, or 9.17 per cent. Atiku won the zone with 1,737,846 votes, while Tinubu obtained 1,185,458. The zone consists of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. Unlike the South-East, where Obi enjoys overwhelming emotional and political support, the North-East requires him to build almost from scratch. Adamawa is Atiku’s home state and remains a difficult state for Obi. Borno is heavily influenced by APC structures and the political network associated with Vice President Kashim Shettima. Obi faces a major organisational challenge. Bauchi, Gombe and Yobe states have strong PDP and APC networks. Obi’s campaign must identify credible local politicians capable of building a grassroots operation. Taraba could offer more room for opposition competition because of its political history and demographic diversity.
The security factor
Security will be particularly important in the North-East. Voters in the region are likely to judge candidates by their ability to address insurgency, insecurity, poverty and unemployment. Obi will need a detailed security and economic programme specifically addressing northern concerns.
