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The 2027 Presidential Elections
Many don’t know that Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara hold the key to the Presidency. As Tinubu, Atiku, Obi and other opposition forces battle for the North they are all eyeing the North-West. The road to Nigeria’s Presidency in 2027 will ultimately pass through one region more than any other: the North-West.
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepares to seek re-election, while Opposition forces regroup around different political platforms and possible alliances, the 7 states of the North-West are emerging as the biggest prize in what could become one of Nigeria’s most fiercely contested presidential elections.
The zone comprises Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara. Together, these states accounted for 22.26 million registered voters in the 2023 election, with about 21.45 million PVCs collected. The zone also had 186 local government areas and more than 41,600 polling units.
That electoral weight is difficult for any presidential candidate to ignore. INEC has already fixed the presidential election for January 16, 2027, meaning the political battle is moving rapidly from speculation to organisation, mobilisation and vote arithmetic.
The fundamental question therefore is: which presidential candidate can build the broadest coalition across the North-West, while simultaneously winning enough votes in the South to cross the national finishing line?
And that is where the 2027 presidential election could be decided. Why is North-West so important? The North-West is Nigeria’s largest geopolitical voting bloc. INEC’s 2023 figures put its registered voter population at 22,255,562. Kano alone had almost six million registered voters, followed by Kaduna with more than 4.3 million and Katsina with more than 3.5 million.
The breakdown was,
2023 Registered Voters
Kano
5,921,370
Kaduna
4,335,208
Katsina
3,516,719
Jigawa
2,351,298
Sokoto
2,172,056
Kebbi
2,032,041
Zamfara
1,926,870
Total
22,255,562
These numbers alone explain why every serious presidential campaign must take the North-West extremely seriously. But there is another important factor. The North-West does not vote as one political bloc. That makes it even more important. The 2023 presidential election demonstrated that the North-West can produce a complicated electoral picture. According to INEC’s official report, the APC won 40.08 per cent of the votes cast by the four leading parties in the North-West, while PDP recorded 35.35 per cent, NNPP 19.25 per cent, and Labour Party 5.31 per cent.
This is extremely significant. It means that although the APC emerged as the strongest of the four major parties in the zone in 2023, its dominance was far from absolute. The PDP remained highly competitive. The NNPP demonstrated considerable strength, particularly because of its Kano base. And Labour Party, despite having a much smaller North-West presence than in the South-East and parts of the South-South, still obtained votes. In other words, the North-West is politically competitive enough to swing a national election.
If there is one state that illustrates the importance of the North-West, it is Kano. With almost 5.92 million registered voters in 2023, Kano was by far the largest electoral market in the zone. The politics of Kano will therefore be central to the 2027 presidential contest. For APC, retaining substantial support in Kano is strategically important. For the opposition, making significant gains in Kano could radically change the national electoral equation. Kano is also different from many other northern states because of the strength of its independent political identity and the influence of personalities such as Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
The 2023 election showed that the NNPP could become a major force in Kano and significantly disrupt the traditional APC-PDP structure. That lesson has not been forgotten. Any opposition coalition seeking to defeat Tinubu will therefore be looking closely at Kano. If Kano represents numerical strength, Kaduna represents something different: political diversity and strategic importance. aduna had more than 4.33 million registered voters in 2023.
The state has historically produced influential political leaders and has a complex religious, ethnic and regional political structure. Unlike some states where one political tendency can dominate for long periods, Kaduna can be fiercely competitive. The candidate who can build a broad coalition across the state’s different constituencies could obtain a significant advantage. For the APC, Kaduna is crucial because of its importance to the party’s northern political structure. For the opposition, Kaduna offers an opportunity to demonstrate that the North-West is not permanently tied to one political party.
Katsina is another critical state. With more than 3.5 million registered voters, it is one of the largest electoral territories in the country. More importantly, Katsina has enormous political significance because it is associated with one of the country’s most influential political traditions. The state was the political base of former President Muhammadu Buhari, whose electoral influence helped shape northern voting patterns for many years. The question in 2027 is whether the APC can continue to benefit from that political legacy or whether opposition parties can break into the state’s traditional voting structure.
This will be one of the major tests of Tinubu’s northern strategy. It would be a mistake to focus only on Kano, Kaduna and Katsina. The remaining 4 states could provide the difference between victory and defeat. Jigawa had more than 2.35 million registered voters in 2023.
Sokoto had more than 2.17 million.
Kebbi had more than 2.03 million.
Zamfara had almost 1.93 million.
Combined, these four states represented more than 8.4 million registered voters. A presidential candidate who wins the three largest states but performs badly in the remaining four could therefore still lose a substantial number of votes. This is why presidential campaigns cannot afford a selective North-West strategy. They need a zone-wide strategy. The biggest question surrounding 2027 is whether the Opposition can consolidate its votes. If the opposition remains divided among several presidential candidates, the APC could benefit enormously. This is particularly important in the North-West.
In 2023, the votes of APC, PDP and NNPP were divided substantially across the zone. But imagine a scenario in which the major opposition forces agree on one presidential candidate. The arithmetic could become very different. A unified opposition candidate could potentially inherit: PDP’s traditional northern network; NNPP’s strength in Kano and parts of the North; support from disaffected APC members; support from younger voters; votes from politicians who believe the ruling party has failed them; and potentially support from other opposition parties.
That would make the North-West a completely different battlefield. That the North-West will determine the election should not be interpreted as saying Tinubu won’t perform well in the zone. Far from it. Tinubu has several structural advantages. First is the incumbency advantage. Second is the APC’s organisational structure. Third is the influence of northern political figures working with the administration. Fourth is the fact that the APC remains a major political force across the northern states. And fifth is the ability of the presidency to combine federal-level political relationships with state-level political structures.
Tinubu therefore enters the North-West contest with an existing political base. His challenge will be to maintain that base while expanding his support among voters who may be dissatisfied with the economic situation or other aspects of his administration.
