If there is one front line politician at this time that has continued to confound many and defy all logic, then it has to be the standard bearer of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. With every passing day, this incredibly brilliant politician has proven beyond doubt that there is a whole lot more to him than his political adversaries can possibly imagine. To underestimate him and dismiss his chances of emerging the next president of the country come 2023 would be akin to making a politically suicidal mistake. Every time it appears there are insurmountable odds stacked against him, Asiwaju not only scales through every barricade put in front of him, he also comes out stronger and more determined than ever to become the next occupant of the highest office in the land. Like his title, Jagaban, connotes, he is a warrior. He is a fighter. He never gives up. He would never be discouraged or intimidated into walking away from that which he believes he can accomplish.
Let us explain what we mean. Before the APC primary was held, many had already written off Bola Tinubu. The general notion then was that he was not favoured by the President to become the party’s presidential flag bearer, that indeed, vice president Yemi Osinbajo was the anointed candidate. More so, it was believed that Osinbajo being a younger and possibly a more popular candidate stood better chances of picking the party’s presidential ticket. There were lots of intrigues at play. Some forces within the presidency appeared to have supported the vice president’s aspirations and pitted him against his former principal and benefactor. In the end, not only did Asiwaju emerge victorious, the vice president came a distant third. Unrelenting in their efforts to distract him and possibly derail his presidential quest, his haters and political rivals again started a campaign of calumny against him and began to raise questions about his health, his age and educational background. They wanted to stop him at all cost. But, like the warrior that he is, he remains unperturbed. Each time they hurl criticisms at him and disparage his personality in the process, he stays focused and keeps his eyes on his target. And his confidence continues to grow. He tells everyone who cares to listen that he will be the next president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. You could almost mistake his confidence for arrogance. But the man does not care what anyone thinks. He is supremely confident of his victory come next year’s presidential election and he simply cannot see anyone of the other two major contenders standing in his way.
But how come Tinubu is confident of winning the election when, to the neutral, it’s really looking like it’s going to be a tight one between him, former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party? Why is it that, despite the growing support for Peter Obi and the deafening noise of his ‘Obidient’ followers, Asiwaju still does not see him as a threat big enough to stop his majestic march to Aso Rock? City People has taken time to speak to a few close aides of the APC standard bearer to find out where his confidence is coming from and our findings have been most astonishing.
According to sources who understand the dynamics of politics and the workings of the mind of the national leader of the APC, they revealed to City People that one of the key reasons why Tinubu is supremely confident about his chances of emerging victorious at the presidential polls next year is the fact that the APC has maintained its firm grip on the 22 states it jealously holds under its belt. Said our source: “the party is in total control of these 22 states with little or no chance of the two contending major parties, the PDP and the Labour Party, possibly snatching any one of the 22 states from our party. In fact, if anything, the APC is looking more likely to be the party that could ‘steal’ an additional state or two from the PDP, all thanks to the intense and unending crisis that’s presently tearing the party into shreds.” Indeed, there appears to be no end to the Wike vs Atiku saga and it is already looking like Asiwaju and the APC will be the biggest beneficiaries of the crisis should it remain this way till election time. If Wike remains this embittered and disenchanted with the party going into the elections next year, then Rivers might very well end up becoming an APC state.
Contrary to the thinking of many politically naïve minds, who believe that the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu/Shettima will work against the party come next year’s presidential election, this is perhaps Tinubu’s biggest joker. It is also one of the key reasons why he remains unrattled by all the noise coming from both the Peter Obi camp and the Atiku camp. “Tinubu is unfazed by their claims that victory is theirs. He sees them as nothing but empty claims that hold no water. For Asiwaju, the presidential election is not won by how much noise you make or many illogical claims or projections you make, it is about careful planning and collation of data. What many do not know is that Tinubu is one of the smartest politicians in Nigeria who works with political data in making decisions and micro-targeting his campaign goals to the right demographics. Hence his ability, more than any candidate to cross the long bridge dividing the northern and southern part of Nigeria ahead of the 2023 presidential election,” said one of City People’s sources. Enflaming the conviction of Tinubu in this data-centric politics, is his calculated choice of former Borno state governor, Senator Kashim Shettima who comes with a ponderous influence in the northern region of the country, where “we find the real voters” (numbers) as claimed by several political analysts.
Although, the choice of Muslim/Muslim ticket came with a heated backlash that almost threatened to divide the party, but it has become clear, even to the opposition, that it is a potent combination that is sure to achieve the desired results. And it is quite simple – Shettima will deliver the north- east to Tinubu while Buhari and his governors will deliver the North-West. And of course, the south west is there for Tinubu, it will be a walk in the park for him.
The power of incumbency is also one factor that will work for Tinubu. This, according to political analysts, should give him massive confidence. Whether people admit it or not, the ruling party, the APC, using the whole of its federal might, will throw its entire weight behind their candidate, and this will include deploying all the resources, human materials and government agencies into the fray to ensure the ruling party stays in power via the victory of their candidate. All of these are some of the political advantages that come with running on the ticket of the ruling party. It took 16 years for the PDP to be ousted from power in 2015 when APC did the “unthinkable”. This is not to validate the rectitude of a party holding sway for a long time especially against the will of the people, but if history is anything to go by, it will take a lot from other parties to dislodge the ruling party from the presidential seat it occupies, especially when the APC is holding firmly to 22 states out of a total of 36 including the federal capital territory.
Tinubu’s growing influence in the north is astonishing. He is enjoying the support of prominent northern leaders and his support base has continued to swell by the day. The talakawas just can’t seem to get enough of the man. The very mention of his name alone sends them into some form of drunken hysteria. They love him to bits and the man continues to reciprocate their love and support for him by consistently rising up to support them whenever the need arises. He has made countless donations to needy communities, provided Tinubu branded bags of rice and beans in large volumes to the people at heavily discounted rates and even for free at times. The fact that he is a Yoruba Muslim has also helped him a great deal. He prays with them, he sits with them and they are comfortable around him. He is confident that they will come out enmasse to vote for him and they too have assured him, in words and by their actions, that they will stand by him through to the very end. If not for any other thing, but for the fact he also stood by their son, the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, and helped him become president after three failed attempts.
Early preparation has also helped Asiwaju a great deal. While the others were busy laying back on the sofa with their feet spread on the table in front of them, believing they still had a whole lot of time on their hands to begin work on actualizing their presidential aspirations, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had started early, hitting the ground running, making wide and intensive consultations across the length and breadth of the country like he was the underdog. The pace at which he went about his business was frenetic. It was astounding as well. Many were shocked to see how Tinubu worked his butts off, traversing the entire country, soliciting for support and votes in the coming election like he was the candidate with the least chance of winning the election. By the time his rivals realized they should also be out there working, Tinubu was already way ahead of them, an advantage that is working for him today. No doubt, knowing he has covered plenty of grounds as far as consultations and strategizing are concerned, will give him immense confidence going into the elections.
He is the biggest political strategist of all time. Whether you admire him or despise him with every vein in your body, you must give it to him, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a Master Political strategist. He knows politics like he knows the back of his hand. His conquests of the South Western states via his many protégés whom he positioned to run for governorship in those states have proven beyond doubt that there is none like him within the country’s political landscape. Those who know him well enough will tell you he thrives more when confronted by a daunting task. He is at his best wits and political sagacity when he is written off. The unspoken word out there is that you write off Tinubu, then you do so at your own peril. This is his first and only shot at the presidency so far and he knows he won’t get another. This is why he has thrown everything he’s got into his presidential ambition. He has worked hard. He has fought many internal battles within the party and came out unscathed. Now he is confident that come what may, nothing can stop him from actualising his life long ambition to become the president of Nigeria.
His fearlessness is not in doubt. Titles like ‘Asiwaju of Lagos’; ‘Jagaban of Borgu Kingdom’ in the Northern Niger State, ‘Aare of Ile-Oluji’ and ‘Agba-Akin Adinni of Ijesha land’ are symbolic and serve as pointers to Tinubu’s evolution as a warrior who actively fought and won many battles in Nigeria’s democratisation process. And for him, this presidential contest is one battle that he must win. And if truth be told, he has not a single doubt in his mind that the battle is as good as won.
Everyone knows about Tinubu’s massive political structure. Tinubu’s machinery brought many politicians to power and same aligned with other forces to end the career of heavyweight public office holders. For over 20 years, Tinubu has relentlessly invested in deepening his political structures which spread across the country. It is, therefore, uncontestable to say Tinubu’s contact, network and political grassroots structures is the most efficient among the major contenders eyeing Aso Villa.
Ultimately, it will be delusive to exonerate the role of the “war chest” when it comes to elections. It is what separates the boys from the men, willy-nilly. Election campaign commenced on September 28, and it is scheduled to span six months. What cannot be knocked off as campaign starts, is that talks don’t do campaigns alone.
You need the war chest to outdo your competitors in an election. All political parties know this, all political candidates will deploy this. Funds are required to take care of the financial expenses of an electoral campaign that gives the electorates all they need to know to inform their choice from the array of options to be presented to them. The chances of a candidate doing this best, politically, lies in the enormity and the judicious use of their “war chest”.
-WALE LAWAL
(08037209290)
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