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Details Of Their Game-Plan Revealed!
Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan is in a dilemma right now. It is about the right steps to take: whether he should run for Presidency in 2027 or not.
Over the last few months, heavy pressure has been mounted on him by many anti-Tinubu forces in the opposition groups asking him to contest.
The big question is: why does ex-President Jonathan want to contest for presidency again? Insiders say he likes the idea. The idea sounds good to him. But it is a tough decision to take. It is also a bitter pill. The bait is that he has not completed his 2 term of 4 years.
Although Goodluck Jonathan hasn’t officially declared yet, but the push for him to run in 2027 is heavy. And it is based on 4 big issues:
- “Save Nigeria” narrative from supporters.
Last week, members of the Coalition for Jonathan 2027 marched to his office in Abuja saying Nigeria is heading for collapse and only he can restore stability.
He’s seen as a unifying figure who conceded in 2015 and avoided post-election violence. They frame him as a “national healer” who can bridge North-South and PDP-APC divides.
- Opposition coalition sees him as a Consensus Candidate
The emerging opposition coalition has been actively pressing Jonathan to run. The ADC is positioning itself as the platform for his potential run.
PDP insiders also say he’s the strongest southern candidate to challenge Tinubu, and some want to give him an automatic ticket.
- He’s left the door open
Jonathan told the coalition “I’ve heard you and I will consult widely”. He’s said contesting “is not a computer game” but hasn’t ruled it out. That’s the strongest signal yet.
- Personal calculation
He wants to cement his statesman image by returning only if he can “save” the country. Some analysts warn a failed run could damage that legacy.
– Eligibility debate: He served as VP, then completed Yar’Adua’s term 2010-2011, then won 2011-2015. A suit argues that Section 137(3) bars him from running again. But the law was amended in 2017 after he left office, so his camp believes it’s not retroactive. The case is in court, next hearing May 11, 2026.
The push is coming from opposition groups who think he’s the only ex-President with enough Goodwill to unite against Tinubu. Jonathan is consulting, not confirming. If he runs, it’ll likely be under ADC or NDC a Consensus opposition candidate.
But his biggest headache is that he is very close to Pres Tinubu.
That’s the twist. Jonathan and Tinubu are publicly on good terms, which can make a 2027 run very messy.
Here’s the dynamic:
What is their relationship right now?
– Jonathan has visited Aso Rock several times since 2023 and calls Tinubu “My brother”.
Tinubu has praised Jonathan for conceding in 2015 and setting a democratic example.
Jonathan’s wife, Patience, even publicly endorsed Tinubu for 2027 in 2025, saying “we’re not running, we’re supporting Asiwaju”.
So on the surface, he’s not in opposition mode.
- But he might still run despite that.
How? If pressure comes from the opposition coalition. ADC and other groups are pitching him as the only ex-president who can unite anti-Tinubu forces. They’re basically asking him to switch sides for “national interest”. He said he’ll “consult widely” before deciding.
The APC/PDP are both fractured. If PDP collapses and APC won’t give him a path, running under ADC lets him keep distance from Tinubu while not looking like an outright enemy.
On the Legacy game, supporters argue Nigeria is in worse shape than 2015, and only Jonathan’s “calm, non-confrontational” style can stabilize it. That’s hard to argue while openly campaigning against a president you call a brother.
- The political cost
If Jonathan runs, the “close to Tinubu” optics will hurt him in 2 ways:
(1) Tinubu’s camp will frame it as betrayal and question his motive.
(2) Opposition base may not trust him, thinking he’s a Spoiler or Tinubu’s backup plan.
That’s why most analysts say he’ll only run if the Coalition gives him a clear path and he cuts visible ties with Aso Rock first.
But being close to Tinubu doesn’t rule out a run, but it makes it politically awkward. Right now it looks like he’s keeping both doors open — stay friendly with Tinubu if he doesn’t run, run under ADC if the coalition convinces him it’s viable.
Is Jonathan that strong politically?
Insiders say, he’s strong in a specific way, but not in the way Tinubu or Atiku are.
Jonathan’s political strength in 2027 looks like this:
(1) National goodwill and “elder statesman” brand
He conceded in 2015 and avoided post-election violence. That still gives him credibility with voters tired of do-or-die politics. Both APC and PDP leaders call him a statesman. That’s why the opposition coalition wants him.
(2) South-South base is solid
Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, and Akwa Ibom still see him as “their son” who made it to Aso Rock. In a tight race, that 1.5-2M vote bloc matters.
(3) Acceptable to both sides
Tinubu’s camp respects him. PDP governors like Makinde and Bala have worked with him. The opposition thinks he can pull votes from APC and PDP without triggering the same resistance Atiku or Obi get.
But he is weak. He has no active political structure
He hasn’t been running a party structure since 2015. Tinubu has APC governors and LG chairmen. Atiku has PDP machinery. Jonathan would be running on coalition goodwill and goodwill alone. That’s why the ADC is courting him — he needs their structure.
There is the perception of being “soft”
Critics from 2015 still say he was indecisive on Boko Haram and corruption. That narrative hasn’t gone away. Younger voters don’t have the same nostalgia.
There’s a suit arguing that Section 137(3) bars him from running again. If the court rules against him, he’s out. That makes governors hesitant to fully commit until May 11, 2026 when the court returns to the case.
So is he “strong enough” to win?
– Head-to-head with Tinubu: Only if the opposition unites behind him and APC splits. Alone, he loses.
– As a consensus candidate: That’s his real path. If Makinde, Bala, Obi’s camp, and parts of PDP all back him, he becomes dangerous. He won’t win on structure, but he can win on “anybody but Tinubu/Atiku” sentiment.
– As a Spoiler: If he runs without coalition backing, he splits southern votes and helps Tinubu.
Can he defeat President Tinubu?
Opinion is divided. Some feel, Head-to-head right now, Jonathan loses. In a fractured field, he has a path.
Tinubu has a lot of advantages:
– Incumbency: Controls federal machinery, appointments, and budget.
– APC structure: Still has 20+ governors and LG structure, even with internal fights.
– Southwest base: Tinubu’s home region is locked in. Jonathan’s South-South alone can’t cancel that out.
Jonathan’s problem: He has no structure. He’d be running on ADC or a new coalition platform with maybe 2 governors if Makinde and Bala fully commit. That’s not enough to match APC’s nationwide spread.
What is the reality check?
In 2015: Jonathan got 12.8M votes and lost to Buhari. Buhari had northern bloc + SW support.
In 2027: Tinubu starts with SW + parts of North. Jonathan would need to flip most of North-Central and North-East, which is hard without a northern VP and structure.
Most analysts say Jonathan’s best role is as a consensus candidate who forces a runoff. Outright win is unlikely unless APC implodes.
So Head-to-head, Tinubu wins 60/40.
But with united opposition + APC split, Jonathan can win 55/45.
– Split opposition, Tinubu wins easily.
Last Friday, Goodluck Jonathan on Friday challenged a suit filed by a lawyer, Johnmary Jideobi, seeking to restrain him from contesting the 2027 presidential election.
Jonathan, through his lawyer, Chief Chris Uche (SAN), informed Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja after the matter was called for hearing that a letter of conditional appearance, a notice of preliminary objection, a counter affidavit and a written address had been filed on May 5, praying the court to dismiss the case.
He said they got information about the case through the media, hence the need to file their processes urgently going by the importance of the matter, which boils down on the eligibility of the former president to contest in the next election.
The senior lawyer said it was unfortunate that such a suit was filed by a Lawyer who should know that the same matter had been decided by the Federal High Court up to the Court of Appeal.
Earlier, counsel to the plaintiff, Ndubuisi Ukpai, informed the court that the matter was for mention, but he was just being served with Jonathan’s processes.
Justice Lifu adjourned the matter till May 11 by 2pm for hearing of the ex-president’s objection and the substantive suit.
The judge also ordered that hearing notices be issued and served on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF), the second and third defendants in the matter.
A lawyer, Johnmary Jideobi, had filed the case, praying the court to bar ex-President, Jonathan from contesting in the 2027 presidential poll.
Citing constitutional grounds, Jideobi urged the court to issue an order of perpetual injunction restraining Jonathan from presenting himself to any political party in the country for the purpose of contesting in the poll.
He also urged the court to restrain INEC from accepting from any political party, Jonathan’s name or publishing the same as a duly nominated candidate for the election. Jideobi, in the suit marked: FHC/ABJ/CS/2102/2025, sued the former president as first defendant.
