•The Inside Story
When Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was picked as the Presidential candidate of the PDP, months back, many people in APC thought it was going to be a walk-over.
They thought Buhari would make a mince meat of Atiku. But Buhari and APC Leaders had forgotten that Atiku is an old hand in politics. He also has a similar pedigree to Buhari.
He is Fulani like Buhari. He is also from North East whilst Buhari is from North West.He has been in politics before Buhari since the early ‘90s, when he started politics with late Gen. Yar’Adua. Unknown to many, it was the late Yar’Adua who taught Atiku the ABC of politics.Also unknown to many, Atiku decided a longtime ago to work on winning in the North.
Immediately, INEC released the new Voters register a few weeks ago, tongues started wagging that going by the figures released, President Buhari will most likely beat Atiku and other contestants in Kano, Katsina and Kaduna, the zones which have huge numbers.In Kano, there are 5,457,747.
In Katsina, there are 3,230,230. And in Kaduna 3,932,492. Lagos which happens to be the base of Buhari’s Chief Strategist, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has 6,570,291 voters.
The story in town then was that Buhari was most likely to pool a huge number of votes from Kano, Katsina and Kaduna and this, he will add to his much talked about 12 million votes and that this will assure him victory at the polls.Â
But Atiku’s aide had faulted all these. They regarded the forecast as largely unrealistic. They told City People that Atiku was battle ready for Buhari in the North. They believe the political game in the North has changed from what it was in 2015.In 2015, there was so much talk about the 12 million bloc votes that President Muhammadu Buhari won from the 17 Northern States, which helped him win the presidential election.
The general story in town now is that PDP’s Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and a few big wigs from the North who are working together are ready to split Buhari’s talked about Northern Votes, as part of Atiku’s strategy to defeat Buhari. Revealed by an insider, Atiku has done his homework well, they say.
“He knows the areas he has strong followership up North. And he knows which states to work on. He is also working with the likes of Senator Kwakwanso who himself is a big factor. He was in APC, but there are rumours that he was also going to run for Presidency. He has a large Kwakwansiya movement. He has joined forces with Atiku, so he is most likely to share Buhari’s APC votes in North West.
Atiku has his traditional votes in the North East, and North Central. What will also work for Atiku is that, although, both Atiku and Buhari are Fulani, Atiku has an added advantage. While he is accepted as a Fulani and a Moslem by the North, the South, does not see him as a fundamentalist the way they perceive Buhari. So, Atiku has a win-win chance and he is more acceptable in all parts of the country.
Some of the elites in the North are unhappy that Buhari has demystified the concept of Talakawa and has thrown every one, both the rich and the poor into further penury. So, the theory that a poor man should rule the country is no longer an attractive narrative. City People has found out that the only candidate, who is strong and ready to take Buhari on is Atiku.Â
Recall that he started the race early and he is ready to go the whole hog. He is ready to do battle for many reasons unknown to many Nigerians. In the first place, he is one man, who knows Buhari well and who is not afraid of him. Two, he is from the North like Buhari.
He is also Fulani just like Buhari. So, he believes he is a good alternative to Buhari.Three, Atiku has a formidable political machine & structure that can deliver victory. Four, he has enormous resources to pursue his political campaign. Five, Atiku has also dissected the North and he plans to split it with Buhari.
He has told everyone around him that Buhari would this time round forget the myth of bloc votes coming to Buhari from the North
Atiku believes if he receives the much needed support that he requires from other equally influential political juggernauts in PDP in the North, he would beat Buhari silly.There are those who think that even in Katsina, during the last rerun elections, with all the federal might, Police, INEC and Military support, PDP polled 45% and APC won with less than 55%. And that was in a staggered election.
Talking about Buhari’s influence in Kano, some people think the influence of Senator Kwakwanso in Kano has reduced that. Explained a politician, “so, let us assume the same pattern repeats itself in Kano at General elections, bearing in mind that Buhari is contesting against another Fulani, a fellow Moslem. How they hope to win in
The numbers from this zone will neutralise any marginal victory from the North West. Taraba is PDP, Gombe is PDP, Atiku is from Adamawa, left with Borno and Bauchi in North East to contend with. South East and South South should be incontestable with PDP with an Igbo man as PDP’s VP candidate.Â
A PDP chieftain says we know APC would be relying on rigging because they have done their survey and have lost to PDP by 57% to 43%, so they will want to force a change in date of the election, So they could correct some things about their perception before the election.
That is the reason they were sponsoring all these crisis in Zamfara, renewed attacks of Boko Haram to create a feeling of insecurity as a justification for the shift”.”Besides, take a look at all the other regions and the APC’s strength and weaknesses.
There are 16 million votes to battle for in South West, Atiku would neutralise Buhari’s votes in 2 major states of the North West- Kano and Kaduna. with Jigawa, and most of the North East almost secured North Central States as well as South South States and South East states would go for him. Especially because he is not likely to get overwhelming votes as in 2015. South West votes however will become the decider, and that will depend on how either of the leaders play.
The role of Kwakwanso is key in Kano. He is the Deputy Chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council for the North and the Senatorial candidate of the PDP in Kano. Both the Presidential election and Senate’s come up the same day. His in-law is the PDP’s governorship candidate in Kano. His Kwakwansiya Movement has a cult-like following in Kano, Jigawa and parts of Kaduna and Katsina. And there is still Sule Lamido for PDP in Jigawa State.Â
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