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For 2027 Presidency
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, one question is increasingly occupying the minds of political watchers across the country: Why did so many prominent Northern politicians not come out to openly challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the presidency — leaving only former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the most prominent Northern presidential challenger?
The question has become even more intriguing because the North remains Nigeria’s most politically influential voting bloc, with 19 states spread across the North-West, North-East and North-Central zones. Yet, rather than witnessing a long list of heavyweight Northern politicians declaring presidential ambitions against Tinubu, much of the political conversation has shifted towards 2031.
There is a growing school of thought among political actors that the Presidency should remain in the South for another 4 years after 2027, following the 8 years of Northern presidency under former President Muhammadu Buhari between 2015 and 2023. This argument is not a constitutional requirement. Nigeria’s Constitution does not prescribe that presidential power must rotate between the North and South. Rather, Zoning and Rotation have developed as political conventions used by parties and political elites to manage Nigeria’s complex ethnic, religious and regional balancing act.
And this may explain why some Northern politicians appear to be looking beyond 2027. The strongest argument being advanced by some Northern political leaders is straightforward: The North has already had 8 consecutive years in Aso Rock under Buhari. The South should therefore be allowed to complete an 8-year cycle before power returns North in 2031. Former Borno State Governor and APC Chieftain Ali Modu Sheriff has publicly articulated this position. Speaking on Channels Television in July 2026, Sheriff said Atiku should wait until 2031 because, in his view, it is currently the South’s turn. He argued that the political understanding surrounding regional balance means that the North should not seek to reclaim the presidency in 2027 after Buhari’s eight-year tenure.
That statement is significant because Sheriff is himself a prominent Northern politician. It demonstrates that the reluctance of some Northern political figures to mount a direct presidential challenge to Tinubu is not necessarily accidental. For some, it is connected to a calculation that the North’s next realistic opportunity is 2031. But Atiku has refused to wait. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar represents the biggest exception to this emerging strategy.
Atiku has secured the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential ticket for 2027 and is again seeking the presidency. His decision means that the argument for Northern political restraint has not achieved unanimity. Atiku’s position is fundamentally different: he has argued against the idea that zoning should determine who is eligible to seek the presidency. His 2027 campaign therefore represents not merely another personal attempt at the presidency but also a challenge to the argument that the North should voluntarily wait until 2031.
This has created an interesting political situation. While some Northern politicians appear to be thinking about 2031, Atiku is fighting for 2027. There are several possible explanations. The first is the politics of Rotation. After 8 years of Buhari, many Southern politicians argued that it was the South’s turn. Tinubu’s emergence in 2023 therefore represented a transfer of power from North to South.
If Tinubu wins a second term in 2027, the South would potentially have occupied the presidency for 8 years. That would create a politically powerful argument for a Northern candidate in 2031. For politicians who are thinking several years ahead, this could be more attractive than fighting an incumbent in 2027. A Northern politician who launches a serious presidential campaign in 2027 could face the political argument that the North should wait.
A politician who positions himself for 2031 could instead present himself as part of the next phase of the regional rotation. Another factor is generational politics. The 2031 contest could produce a new field of Northern presidential aspirants. Political calculations around the post-Tinubu presidency were already beginning, with influential Northern politicians quietly positioning themselves for the succession battle.
That is an important development. The 2031 election could potentially become a contest among politicians who use the next 4 years to build national structures, deepen relationships across the 6 geopolitical zones and establish themselves as successors to the current generation. For some politicians, therefore, 2027 may be less about winning Aso Rock and more about preparing the political ground for 2031.
One of the most interesting features of the 2027 political permutations is the attention being paid to Northern politicians as possible vice-presidential candidates. Several Northern political figures were positioning themselves around the vice-presidential contest, reflecting the possibility that the presidency could remain in the South. This creates a potentially powerful political route. A Northern politician who becomes vice president in 2027 could find himself in a much stronger position for the presidency in 2031.
This is particularly important because the vice presidency provides national visibility, access to a nationwide political network and the opportunity to build relationships with political leaders across the country. Consequently, some Northern politicians may see a 2027 vice-presidential opportunity as more strategically useful than launching an independent presidential campaign against Tinubu.
There is also the practical reality of presidential politics. Tinubu would be contesting as an incumbent president. The APC has the advantage of federal incumbency, a nationwide political structure and significant support from governors and political leaders. By August 2026, reports indicated that the APC was preparing its presidential campaign machinery, while the ADC was also putting its structure together around Atiku.
For a Northern politician who does not have a sufficiently strong national structure, taking on an incumbent president in 2027 could be a very difficult political undertaking. Such a politician could reasonably calculate that it is better to spend four years building structures than to launch an expensive presidential campaign with uncertain prospects.
Another important point is that there is no single “Northern vote.” The North consists of 3 geopolitical zones:
* North-West
* North-East
* North-Central
These zones have different political histories, interests and influential political figures. Even within individual zones, politicians do not necessarily share the same presidential preference. This makes it difficult for any single Northern politician to automatically inherit the support that former President Muhammadu Buhari commanded. Atiku’s political calculation appears to be based on the belief that the presidency should be determined by electoral competition rather than an informal regional timetable.
His political history also distinguishes him from many politicians who may be contemplating 2031. He has contested the presidency several times — including in 2007, 2019 and 2023 — and has remained one of the most persistent presidential contenders in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. In 2023, he contested on the PDP platform and came second behind Tinubu, while Peter Obi finished third. For Atiku, therefore, 2027 represents another opportunity to pursue the presidency rather than wait for a future opening. The big question: Is Atiku representing the North? This is where the political debate becomes complicated.
Atiku is from the North, but it does not automatically follow that every Northern politician or voter supports his 2027 ambition. Indeed, Ali Modu Sheriff has explicitly argued that Atiku is acting on his own and that it is not the North’s turn. Other Northern political actors have also questioned whether the North should return to the presidency in 2027. At the same time, Atiku has supporters across Northern Nigeria and has attracted prominent Northern politicians into the ADC coalition.
Former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, for instance, has emerged as a major figure in Atiku’s 2027 campaign structure. Therefore, it would be inaccurate to describe the North as unanimously opposed to Atiku. The more accurate description is that Northern political opinion is divided over whether 2027 or 2031 should be the region’s target. There is another way of looking at the situation.
The apparent absence of numerous Northern presidential aspirants does not necessarily mean that Northern politicians have abandoned the presidency. They may instead be negotiating around timing. Political leaders frequently calculate not only who should occupy power but also when their own region, party or political generation should make its move. From this perspective, 2027 could become a period of strategic positioning.
The entire 2031 strategy rests on an assumption: That the presidency will actually remain in the South until 2031. That is not guaranteed by the Constitution. It is a political convention. And political conventions can change. On one hand, some Northern political leaders appear to believe that the region should wait until 2031. On the other hand, Atiku is saying that Nigerians should be allowed to choose their president through an election rather than through an informal rotation timetable. The 2 positions represent different approaches to Nigeria’s presidential politics. One prioritises regional rotation and political stability. The other prioritises open electoral competition.
For now, Atiku remains the most prominent Northern politician openly challenging Tinubu for the presidency in 2027. While Atiku is fighting for Aso Rock in 2027, other Northern politicians are already calculating how to position themselves for the battle for Aso Rock in 2031.
